453
FXUS63 KLOT 172106 AAA
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
306 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH POSSIBLE TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-80.
- PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY INCLUDE PARTS OF NORTHEAST IL AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WE FIND A TIGHTENING AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE COMING OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. ALONG ITS NORTHERN
FRINGES IS A LARGE REGION OF LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AS A
SPEEDY ZONAL LOW LEVEL JET/WARM CONVEYOR BELT UNDERCUTS
DIVERGENT MERIDIONAL FLOW ON THE TAIL END OF A MID LEVEL JET
MAX. A LARGE SWATH OF MOSTLY LIGHT, SOME MODERATE, SNOW
COINCIDES WITH THE REGION OF F-GEN. THE BULK OF THE
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING EXISTS NEAR THE IA/NE/MN TRIPOINT AT THE
TIME THIS WAS WRITTEN (ROUGHLY 1 PM), BUT EXTENDS AS FAR EAST AS
EASTERN IA WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH-CENTRAL IA. THIS REGION OF F-GEN WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD AND MOVE OVER NORTHERN IL LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
THERE REMAINS A FAIR DEAL OF DISCREPANCY AMONG GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE F-GEN FORCING TONIGHT. THE
CANADIAN AND ESPECIALLY GFS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE LEAST
EXCITED ABOUT THIS FEATURE AND OFFER UP THE LEAST QPF ACROSS
GUIDANCE. EVEN THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS ARE HEAVILY
CLUSTERED AROUND GENERALLY LOWER QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS THAN OTHER
GUIDANCE. MOST OF THE HIGH-RES CAMPS, HOWEVER, ARE MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FORCING AND, IN TURN, THE SNOWFALL. THIS IS
A TYPICAL FINDING IN SUCH ENVIRONMENTS WITH THE COARSER MEDIUM-
RANGE GUIDANCE OFTEN WINDING UP UNDERPLAYING THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE F-GEN. THEREFORE, MORE EGGS WERE THROWN INTO THE HIGH-RES
MODEL BASKET WHEN BUILDING THIS FORECAST.
WE SHOULD FIND PRECIP STARTING TO MOVE INTO OUR WEST LATE THIS
EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY, WHICH LEAVES CONCERNS REGARDING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
A BIG MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WE SEE TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF SNOW, BUT IT'S POSSIBLE THAT A LITTLE RAIN MIXES IN DURING
ONSET AS WE WAIT FOR THE LOW LEVELS TOO COOL OFF SOME. THE
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, BUT A MORE
BONAFIDE BAND OF MODERATE SNOW WITH RATES NEAR 0.5"/HR CERTAINLY
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH THIS F-GEN SIGNATURE. THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH
TO COAT EVEN THE WARMEST OF ROADS AND LEAD TO ADVERSE TRAVEL
CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. LUCKILY, THE BULK OF THE
SNOW AND ESPECIALLY THE HEAVIER SNOW POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MOVING
OUT OF THE CHICAGO METRO RIGHT AS THE MORNING COMMUTE REALLY
TAKES OFF BETWEEN 5 AND 6 AM. NONETHELESS, SOME ROADS MAY REMAIN
SLICK WELL INTO THE MORNING. SNOW TOTALS ARE LOOKING LIKE
ANYWHERE FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AROUND AN INCH, ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT
BE SHOCKED TO SEE A SWATH OF 1-2" TOTALS IF THIS BAND PERFORMS
TO ITS POTENTIAL. MODELS ARE GENERALLY FAVORING HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS NORTH OF I-88 AND TOWARD THE WI STATE LINE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOCALIZED POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
MAY ALSO BE IN THE CARDS, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE
EVENT AS THE MID LEVELS START TO DRY WHICH COULD EAT AWAY AT
CLOUD GLACIATION. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BOTTOM
OUT JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND
WEST OF I-355 AND NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER, IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD COME AND GO PRIOR TO
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AND, COMING OFF A SOMEWHAT
MILD TUESDAY, ROAD TEMPERATURES SHOULD LAG THE AMBIENT AIR
TEMPERATURE IN FALLING BELOW FREEZING. BASICALLY, THIS IS TO SAY
THAT FREEZING RAIN IMPACTS, IF ANY, LOOK TO BE VERY LOCALIZED
AND LIKELY TO RESTRICTED TO RURAL AND LESS- TRAVELED ROADS
OUTSIDE OF THE CHICAGO METRO. THIS POTENTIAL MAY JUST END UP
BEING A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE TO WRAP THINGS UP IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, WITH THE LOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT QUICKLY DURING
THE EARLY MORNING, THIS SHOULD BE A SHORT-LIVED POTENTIAL.
WE MAY SEE A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A MIX OR TO ALL RAIN NEAR AND
OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AFTER SUNRISE AS THIS STUFF STILL WORKS
OUT OF THE AREA. WE SHOULD BE PRECIP-FREE BY THE END OF THE
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST EATING AWAY
AT CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS PROGGED AT OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING.
DOOM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
DISCUSSION LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT. THE FOCUS
REMAINS ON SEVERAL PERIODS OF SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY, WITH NO MAJOR SHIFTS IN FORECAST
GUIDANCE.
THERE REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A VIGOROUS CLIPPER TYPE
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. A DISTINCT MAJORITY OF MOST RECENT OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GENERALLY FAVOR NORTH OF OUR AREA WHERE THE
BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE STRONGEST 500 MB FORCING WITH THE PARENT SHORT-WAVE
PUSHING ACROSS ILLINOIS, THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE MEANINGFUL
WIGGLE ROOM IN THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER. EVEN IN THE CURRENT
GENERAL CONSENSUS, NORTH-SOUTH DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE WEAK SURFACE LOW ARE IMPORTANT.
POPS ARE INTRODUCED IN THE FORECAST IN THE 20-30% RANGE INTO
FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
STARTS TO MOVE OVER THE STATE. HOWEVER, THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN ONSET TIME IF THE COLUMN IS STILL BE TOO DRY FOR
WARM ADVECTION SNOW. IF THE CLIPPER SURFACE LOW TRACKS FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH, THE ACCUMULATING SNOW BAND(S) IN WISCONSIN COULD
CONCEIVABLY PIVOT INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-88 LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING, WHERE OUR GRIDS HAVE SOME POPS
UP TO LIKELY/60% AND THESE HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE. CONCEPTUALLY, SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE CORE OF THE MID- LEVEL PVA AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN FROM COLD (NEAR -30C AT 500 MB) TEMPS ALOFT.
LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE KEPT THE TRACK SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS, BUT
SHOWS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER LOW.
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, IN A STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLY COLD ADVECTION REGIME ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CLIPPER,
AREAS OF SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH. WE'LL
ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM EASTERN WI
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. MAIN TAKEAWAY IS THAT THE
CURRENT BEST CHANCE FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS IN ANY PORTION OF OUR
AREA APPEARS TO BE THE THURSDAY EVENING COMMUTE THROUGH THE
FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
EXPANSIVE NEAR 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, TYPICALLY A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. 850 MB
TEMPS FORECAST TO GET DOWN INTO THE -12 TO -15 CELSIUS RANGE
SUGGEST FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS AND LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
GIVEN LAKE TEMPS STILL IN THE 40S. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INVERSION HEIGHTS TO SUPPORT
HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES. THE BIGGEST UNANSWERABLE QUESTION AT THIS
POINT IS EXACTLY HOW BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE SETS UP,
DICTATING THE TRAJECTORY OF LAKE EFFECT BAND(S). BASED ON OUR
FORECAST WIND DIRECTIONS, NORTHWEST INDIANA MAY BE MORE FAVORED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, POSSIBLY MIGRATING
WESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST IL AND FAR NW INDIANA ON SATURDAY-
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WILDCARD FOR THE LAKE EFFECT IS THE
INFLUENCE OF MESOLOW DEVELOPMENT, IF THAT OCCURS.
ASIDE FROM THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
A WEAKENING BAND OF SNOW APPROACHING OUR WESTERN CWA SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE A STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT-
LIVED, WITH VERY STRONG MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE AGREEMENT IN A
PATTERN CHANGE TO MILDER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEK OF CHRISTMAS.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT AT SOME POINT ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ON OR AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE.
BUT WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS DISAGREEING ON TIME AND LOCATION, IT
IS HARD TO HAVE CONFIDENCE TO SAY HOW WET THINGS WOULD BE
CASTRO/DK
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY AVIATION MESSAGES FOR THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD:
- A BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH A
SHORT WINDOW OF IFR CONDITIONS
DESPITE HIGH CLOUDS STILL PASSING OVERHEAD, LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE CLEARED OUT FOR VFR CONDITIONS IN THE NEAR TERM. WINDS ARE
OUT OF THE WEST AND WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
EVENING.
AFTER MIDNIGHT, A BAND OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM MEANS THAT THE SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AT
ANY ONE GIVEN LOCATION. A SHORT PERIOD OR TWO OF IFR
VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY (AROUND 60% CHANCE). A
COATING TO LOCALLY AN INCH OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE,
PARTICULARLY AT RFD AND DPA. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS
THE BANDS MOVE THROUGH.
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY FINE SNOW, OR A MIXTURE OF THE TWO, COULD
LINGER AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE SNOW BANDS MOVE THROUGH. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE
EAST AFTER DAYBREAK, THOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS JUST OVER 20 KNOTS.
DK
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GARY
TO BURNS HARBOR IN-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO
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