415
FXUS63 KLOT 231433
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
933 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO LIFT NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 THIS MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN
A TENTH AND ONE-HALF INCH.
- THE STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE, PAUSING BRIEFLY ON
SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES TURN EVEN WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- AN ACTIVE SPRING STORM TRACK WILL TAKE AIM AT THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES NEXT WEEK, BRINGING THE PROSPECT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 933 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SKY COVER PRIMARILY WITH THE
MORNING UPDATES. STILL EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DIMINISH SOUTH OF I-88 GENERALLY...WITH CHANCES LINGERING
AROUND I-88 AND NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
NWS LINCOLN
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON)
A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH OF
THE I-80 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING IN TANDEM WITH THE NOSE OF
A MODEST 850-MB JET. A QUICK GLANCE AT THE IR SATELLITE REVEALS
WARMING CLOUD TOPS AS THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO
OUTPACE THE MEAGER INSTABILITY, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS
THE CLUSTER LIFTS FURTHER NORTH THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. STILL,
WE COULD SEE SOME PRETTY EFFICIENT RAIN RATES, WITH NEARBY
RADARS DEPICTING RATES OF 0.5-1"/HR. THIS LINES UP REASONABLY
WELL WITH RECENT HREF 3-HR PMM QPF GUIDANCE, WHICH OFFERS
0.1"-0.5" WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ONE BYPRODUCT OF THESE EARLY
MORNING STORMS IS ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/OUTFLOW WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A BUSTED TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE, NAMELY THE HRRR, CONTINUE TO HINT AT
THIS POSSIBILITY, EVEN OFFERING ADDITIONAL SHOWERY ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF I-88 AS SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY INTERACTS WITH A LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY. AREAS SOUTH OF
I-80 SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND EASILY REACH THE UPPER 70S THIS
AFTERNOON, WHILE AREAS NORTH OF I-88 MAY STRUGGLE TO BREACH THE
UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
A POCKET OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES AT BAY. CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES IN AREAS SOUTH
OF I-80 THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE JOKE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON
AREAS NORTH OF I-88, BUT PARTICULARLY ALONG THE LAKEFRONT, AS A
BACKDOOR FRONT SAGS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE NET
EFFECT WILL BE SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR CWA, WITH
LOWER 70S NORTH OF I-88 AND LOWER 60S SMACK-UP AGAINST THE
LAKESHORE. A SIMILAR TREND THEN CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY AS THE
EAST- WEST FRONT STALLS IN THE VICINITY OF I-80.
RAIN CHANCES RE-EMERGE FRIDAY MORNING OR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE GLIDE
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT. OVERALL, THE VERTICAL MOISTURE
PROFILE WITH THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS FAIRLY PALTRY WITH SOME
RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE. WHILE THIS SETUP DOESN'T
APPEAR LIKE IT WILL DELIVER MUCH RAIN, THERE IS AN AXIS OF
MODEST MLCAPE (500-1000 J/KG) NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE
CONVECTIVE PRECIP MAY OVERACHIEVE OUR CURRENT QPF (< 0.5")
EXPECTATIONS.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPILL ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A ROBUST MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
UPPER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND HELPS FLUSH OUR LINGERING FRONT
WELL TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ONLY
WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S INLAND, AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE
LAKEFRONT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
AFTER A SEASONABLY CHILLY SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES BOUNCE WARMER
BY SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF A DEEP WESTERN TROUGH. AN IMPRESSIVE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY
AND INTO THE LOWER 80S MONDAY & TUESDAY. OF COURSE, WE CAN'T
SURGE INTO THE 80S THIS TIME OF YEAR WITHOUT IT BEING
ACCOMPANIED WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A QUICK GLANCE AT
GEFS/EPS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MEAN WIND GUSTS AROUND 30-40 MPH
DURING THIS TIME AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN IMPENDING STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS JUNCTURE, WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AND THROUGH
TUESDAY, AND THIS IDEA IS STOKED BY MULTIPLE MACHINE- LEARNING
TOOLS WHICH HIGHLIGHT THE MID- MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
NWS LINCOLN
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE TERMINALS...
- SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY (40% CHANCE) THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z/10AM THIS MORNING.
- GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS (5-10 KTS) WILL OSCILLATE
BETWEEN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING, LEAVING BEHIND ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS.
SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT WINDS
WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON,
BECOMING VARIABLE FOR A TIME TONIGHT BEFORE ADOPTING AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT BY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, CLEARING SKIES LATER
THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NWS LINCOLN
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page