615
FXUS63 KLOT 220527
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1227 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG (DENSE IN SPOTS) WILL DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF CHICAGO
LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- LITTLE TO NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
- AN EARLY FALL TEMPERATURE PREVIEW REMAINS IN STORE SUNDAY-
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
THROUGH FRIDAY:
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO CENTER
AROUND THE THREAT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVERHEAD. THIS WILL FOSTER
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESULT IN A RATHER COOL NIGHT
AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 OUTSIDE
OF THE CHICAGO URBAN HEAT ISLAND. THIS IS PROBLEMATIC, AS
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THESE VALUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON, IT APPEARS THAT MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF CHICAGO WILL
FALL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THEIR CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES LATE
TONIGHT. ACCORDINGLY, FOG DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY (70%+
CHANCE) OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, AND THE FOG COULD
BECOME DENSE (VISIBILITY UNDER A 1/4 MILE) AND IMPACT EARLY
MORNING TRAVEL IN PARTS OF THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND, I
CONTINUED THE TREND OF HITTING THE FOG A BIT HARDER IN THE GRIDS
AND IN OUR WEATHER STORY.
FOLLOWING THE EARLY MORNING FOG ON FRIDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER
RATHER PLEASANT LATE AUGUST DAY ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY,
WITH AFTERNOONS READINGS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY COOLER
LAKESIDE). DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED, THOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SOME FAIR WEATHER
STRATO CU DEVELOPS.
KJB
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
A STRONG UPPER LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT
EAST FROM MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES, THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, WITH THE FRONT LOOKING TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DURING A DIURNALLY UNFAVORABLE TIME, THE
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY, IF NOT DIMINISH
ALTOGETHER, AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN IL SATURDAY
MORNING. ACCORDINGLY, THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR
AREA IS LOW (20% OR LESS) AT THIS POINT, AND COULD BECOME MORE
FOCUSED SOUTHEAST OF I-55 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
ANOTHER MILD DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN TOPPING OUT AROUND
80.
THE AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL CARVE OUT DEEP MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL FAVOR A PERIOD OF BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS A MUCH COOLER AUTUMN-LIKE AIRMASS
SHIFTS INTO THE AREA ON BREEZY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THIS AIRMASS WILL BE FAVORED TO ONLY BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S (A FEW
LOCALIZED MID 40S?) TO LOWER 50S OUTSIDE OF CHICAGO! IN
ADDITION, AN EARLY SEASON LAKE EFFECT RAIN (AND EVEN
THUNDERSTORM) EPISODE MAY UNFOLD PRIMARILY TO OUR EAST AND
NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO PORTER COUNTY INDIANA AT TIMES DEPENDENT UPON LOW-LEVEL
FLOW/BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE ORIENTATION SHIFTING MORE
NORTHERLY.
BELOW NORMAL, BUT COMFORTABLE/PLEASANT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK BEFORE READINGS RETURN
BACK TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS HEADING INTO LABOR
DAY WEEKEND. ALSO IMPORTANTLY, PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WORK WEEK, GIVING MORE TIME TO DRY OUT FROM
THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.
KJB/CASTRO
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE 06Z TAFS:
- POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR/VLIFR FOG ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN IL
SITES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
- LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF LAKE BREEZE AT ORD/MDW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 9 KT FOR ANY
LENGTH OF TIME REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION.
WE HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE 06Z TAF SET, AS NEAR
TERM OBSERVATIONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND
PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN SHOW PATCHY DENSE FOG, SHOWING WHAT COULD
AT LEAST FOR A TIME MATERIALIZE ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST
IN. THERE ARE A FEW MVFR CLOUD PATCHES THAT WILL LINGER AND
DRIFT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR IFR AT RFD/DPA/GYY WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
ALREADY LOW.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS QUITE VARIED SOLUTIONS FOR WINDS TOMORROW,
PARTICULARLY FOR ORD/MDW IN VICINITY OF THE LAKE. WE WERE
TRYING TO INVESTIGATE WHY THE LAKE BREEZE WOULD NOT PASS THROUGH
ORD/MDW GIVEN THE LIGHT FLOW IN THE COLUMN. AS THE LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST, LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY,
BUT IT WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG. THEREFORE CONCEPTUALLY THIS
WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST A TURN TO A SE WIND, THOUGH GIVEN THE
WARM LAKE IT WOULD NOT LIKELY BE A VERY STRONG LAKE BREEZE PUSH
(WINDS UNDER 9 KT). CONFIDENCE ON TIMING DOES REMAIN LOW.
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NE IL LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THE SIGNAL FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES IS LOW.
KMD
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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