814
FXUS63 KLOT 151725
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1225 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
- PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK (20-30%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
AN OVERALL QUIESCENT PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
ATOP A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST (A PSEUDO-REX BLOCK
PATTERN). THIS WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 (WARMEST TOWARD WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS). RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE FLOW AMIDST EXPANSIVE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW DAILY LAKE BREEZES TO PUSH INLAND
HOLDING TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S NEAR THE LAKESHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP ANY SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS ALSO TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH THE BREAK
DOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE/BLOCKING PATTERN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
MOST OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND
FURTHER SLOWING COULD OCCUR WITH LATER UPDATES. EVENTUALLY THE
WESTERN TROUGH (AND/OR POTENTIAL CUT-OFF LOW) WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARD AND OVER THE AREA LEADING TO PERIODIC SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BE PAIRED WITH COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.
PETR
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF LESS
THAN 10 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH TO
A FEW KTS THIS EVENING. EXPECT THAT THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FROM NORTH TO EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. STEADIER EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN
TOWARD MIDDAY TUESDAY.
MDB
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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