545
FXUS63 KLOT 070751
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
251 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS MORNING.
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK; WARMING TEMPS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH STEADILY SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING WITH RAIN
ENDING ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT DESPITE THE SUNSHINE, IT'LL BE
MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT
AND ACROSS OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONLY
IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE A MODEST INCREASE IN
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WITH A MODEST RISE IN INVERSION
HEIGHTS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS
STREAMING IN OFF THE LAKE INTO NORTHEAST IL WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SPRINKLES. GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS AND MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMICS, KEPT FORMAL MENTION OF SPRINKLES OUT OF THE
FORECAST, BUT DID BUMP UP POPS IN THE GRIDDED DATABASE TO
10-14% NEAR THE LAKE BETWEEN ABOUT 09-15Z WED.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. GUIDANCE STILL HAS A WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FRIDAY-ISH TIME FRAME, BUT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPING THE SYSTEM PRETTY WEAK,
HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST. SOMETIMES THESE LOW AMPLITUDE
SYSTEMS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE CAN END UP A BIT STRONGER THAN
PROGGED, IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN AND IF IT WERE TO TRACK JUST
RIGHT, COULDN'T RULE OUT A SHOWER THREAT FRIDAY IN THE AREA, BUT
CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER RIDGING SPREADS EAST AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD
OF DEVELOPING CYCLONE OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
THAT SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
INTO OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT DOES.
- IZZI
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
MAIN CONCERNS:
- SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS,
WITH SHOWERS AND BR LINGERING PAST SUNRISE
- LOW CIGS SCATTERING BY MIDDAY NORTHERN IL AND BY MID
AFTERNOON AT GYY
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHRA AND EMBEDDED TS (VSBY AS LOW AS
2-3SM) WILL INITIALLY FOCUS NORTH OF I-88/290, AND THEN SHOULD
ENCOMPASS MDW AND PERHAPS GYY EVENTUALLY. CONTINUED ON AND OFF
SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER DAYBREAK.
LOW CIGS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM LIFR AT DPA, IFR AT ORD AND RFD,
AND LOW MVFR AT MDW AND GYY MAY BUILD DOWN A BIT AT CURRENT
MVFR SITES THROUGH DAWN, AND THEN LIFT BACK TO MVFR BY THE MID
TO LATE MORNING. ONCE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN, THEY'RE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS RANGING FROM 350-020 DEGREES WILL INCREASE TO
~10-12 KT THIS MORNING, ALONG WITH GUSTS NEAR/AROUND 20 KT NEAR
THE LAKE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING AND
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHWEST.
CASTRO
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE IL
NEARSHORE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE IN
NEARSHORE WATERS.
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