300
FXUS63 KLOT 071723
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1223 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS MORNING.
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK; WARMING TEMPS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH STEADILY SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING WITH RAIN
ENDING ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT DESPITE THE SUNSHINE, IT'LL BE
MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT
AND ACROSS OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONLY
IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE A MODEST INCREASE IN
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WITH A MODEST RISE IN INVERSION
HEIGHTS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS
STREAMING IN OFF THE LAKE INTO NORTHEAST IL WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SPRINKLES. GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS AND MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMICS, KEPT FORMAL MENTION OF SPRINKLES OUT OF THE
FORECAST, BUT DID BUMP UP POPS IN THE GRIDDED DATABASE TO
10-14% NEAR THE LAKE BETWEEN ABOUT 09-15Z WED.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. GUIDANCE STILL HAS A WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FRIDAY-ISH TIME FRAME, BUT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPING THE SYSTEM PRETTY WEAK,
HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST. SOMETIMES THESE LOW AMPLITUDE
SYSTEMS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE CAN END UP A BIT STRONGER THAN
PROGGED, IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN AND IF IT WERE TO TRACK JUST
RIGHT, COULDN'T RULE OUT A SHOWER THREAT FRIDAY IN THE AREA, BUT
CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER RIDGING SPREADS EAST AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD
OF DEVELOPING CYCLONE OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
THAT SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
INTO OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT DOES.
- IZZI
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
KEY AVIATION MESSAGES FOR THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD:
- MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE LAKE AND NEAR
CHICAGO TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER VIS
DOWN AT WORST TO 3 SM AND WITH SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS THROUGH 20Z
(EARLIER AT ORD) IF THEY PASS DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL. HIGHER
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON,
BUT CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST AND DRIER, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF NORTH IF NOT NORTHEAST WITH ISOLATED
GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST
AFTER SUNSET BEFORE RETURNING TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR CIGS RETURNING ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT IT WAS KEPT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.
DK
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE IL
NEARSHORE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE IN
NEARSHORE WATERS.
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