092
FXUS63 KLOT 220601
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
101 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 40 MPH THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE.
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING.
- AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND ARE
LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE WESTERLY WINDS INTO THIS
EVENING. GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
THERE MAY BE A FEW HOUR PERIOD AROUND SUNSET WHERE GUSTS AROUND
45 MPH DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL IL.
WITH THE EXPECTED SHORT DURATION AND LIMITED AREA OF THE LOCAL
CWA, NOT PLANNING ANY WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AND WIND GUST
TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED INTO THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS
WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY BY LATE EVENING, INTO THE 30-35 MPH RANGE
WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ENDING WITH SUNSET WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLIER THAN GUIDANCE WAS
SHOWING AND ARE MORE WIDESPREAD. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
THROUGH I-80. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN COVERAGE
NEAR SUNSET AND THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND END FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THERE MAY ALSO BE A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST IN, MAINLY NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, MAINLY
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA THOUGH THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY, PRIMARILY WITH THE WINDS. GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS
IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE AND THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH FOR
WIDESPREAD FROST. CONVERSELY, IF CLOUDS CLEAR, THESE WINDS MAY
BE TOO HIGH. SO FOR NOW, MADE NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.
FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA, LIGHT/CALM
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER/MID 30S AWAY FROM THE LAKE/DOWNTOWN. ALSO MADE NO CHANGES
TO THIS TIME PERIOD WITH AREAS OF FROST FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS SHOWING VARIOUS WEAK WAVES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND THEN ANY POSSIBLE PHASING BETWEEN NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE NOTABLE CHANGE IS A RATHER
STRONG AND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SOME OF THE MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY TEND TO KEEP PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS LOWERED POPS
INTO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE WEEKEND, THEN HIGH CHANCE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND MADE NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. CMS
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
- MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS TODAY.
WHILE THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAY BECOME LESS FREQUENT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO
GUST TO 25-30 KTS WITH REGULARITY THROUGH THE DAYTIME TODAY
BEFORE ABATING AFTER SUNSET. MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO SLOWLY
WORKING THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD FROM WISCONSIN AND SHOULD SETTLE IN
OVER THE TERMINALS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. THESE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING AND
SCATTERING, ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN GOING INTO
THIS EVENING.
OGOREK
MARINE
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WESTERLY GALES TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. ONCE THE GALES END, WESTERLY
WINDS TO 30 KT WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. CMS
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WINTHROP
HARBOR IL TO GARY IN.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GARY TO BURNS
HARBOR IN-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO
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