338
FXUS63 KLOT 241135
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
635 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST IS AGAIN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
CORE OF THE CHICAGO METRO TONIGHT.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODIC LOW CHANCES (30% OR
LESS) OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING HAVE BEEN COMMON FOR AREAS OUTSIDE
OF THE CORE OF THE CHICAGO METRO EARLY THIS MORNING. A SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE QUAD CITIES WILL DRIFT EASTWARD
TODAY, ULTIMATELY EXITING TO THE EAST LATE THIS EVENING. CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO QUICKLY REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING AFTER
SUNRISE, THOUGH INCREASING CIRRUS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ONLY
SLIGHT MODERATION OF THE EXISTING AIRMASS WILL CAP HIGH TEMPS
TODAY IN THE MID 50S.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE
DEPARTING RIDGE. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER, ESPECIALLY SOUTH, WILL LIMIT NOCTURNAL COOLING TO SOME
EXTENT, BUT AREAS OF FROST CAN BE EXPECTED FOR INTERIOR
LOCATIONS AGAIN TONIGHT.
A BLOCKED HIGH OVER LOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
DRIVE MUCH OF THE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL GRADUALLY DRAW IN GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY DURING THIS TIME. MEANWHILE, A WEAK WAVE SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CLIP THE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. SOME MID- LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING
FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE WAVE
TO THE NORTH, RESULTING IN SPARSE SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE DAY, HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM BRINGING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR BANDS
OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT AGAIN, A VAST MAJORITY OF
THE AREA IS FAVORED TO REMAIN DRY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
A TROUGH ATTEMPTING TO UNDERCUT THE NORTHERN RIDGE FROM THIS
WEEKEND'S BLOCKING PATTERN IS PROGGED TO SEND A WAVE INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND AMPLIFY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE EXPANSION OF THE DEEP LOW COMBINED
WITH A TRAILING TROUGH ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE LOW SUPPORTS
THE INCLUSION OF AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
KLUBER
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS (UP TO AROUND 5-6 KT) TURNING EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEAST IN THE EVENING. WIND DIRECTIONS MAY
BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT (UNDER 5 KT) BEFORE RETURNING
TO A PREVAILING SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY ALONG
WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE.
PETR
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ003-ILZ004-
ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-
ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039-ILZ103-ILZ106-
ILZ107-ILZ108.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ105.
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT /9 AM EDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ001-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ002.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GARY TO
BURNS HARBOR IN-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO
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