961
FXUS63 KLOT 242312
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
612 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.
- CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ARE 30 PERCENT OR
LOWER AND ANY GIVEN LOCATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY:
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE
DEPARTING RIDGE. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER, ESPECIALLY SOUTH, WILL LIMIT NOCTURNAL COOLING TO SOME
EXTENT, BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD STILL HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING
INTO THE 30S (EXCEPT IN THE CORE OF CHICAGO WHERE LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S ARE EXPECTED). WITH MOST OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE THIS MORNING, WILL FORGO THE ISSUANCE OF ANY
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FALL SEASON.
A BLOCKED UPPER-LEVEL "HIGH OVER LOW" PATTERN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS WILL DRIVE MUCH OF THE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL GRADUALLY DRAW IN GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID TO LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS TIME. MEANWHILE, A WEAK
WAVE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CLIP
THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
ORIGINATING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT
WITH THE WAVE TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER, A STOUT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL PROVIDE A
STEADY FEED OF DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR, LIKELY CHEWING UP ANY
RAINDROPS AS THEY FALL TOWARD THE GROUND. IN ALL, WILL GO WITH A
10-15% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION
KEEPING IN MIND MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY. THICK CLOUD COVER WILL
HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD SEASONABLE VALUES AND IN THE 50S.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM BRINGING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR
US-24 DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT AGAIN, A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
AREA IS FAVORED TO REMAIN DRY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
A TROUGH ATTEMPTING TO UNDERCUT THE NORTHERN RIDGE FROM THE
BLOCKING PATTERN IS PROGGED TO SEND A WAVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND AMPLIFY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXPANSION OF THE DEEP LOW
COMBINED WITH A TRAILING TROUGH ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE LOW
SUPPORTS THE INCLUSION OF AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE CONTINUED FEED
OF DRY AIR FROM THE CANADIAN HIGH MAY RELEGATE ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL.
KLUBER/BORCHARDT
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
NO MAJOR FORECAST CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINALS AS A
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE,
EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT TO BECOME MORE EAST-
SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 6-8 KTS. WHILE A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN IL AND
NORTHWEST IN ON SATURDAY, THE POCKET OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR LOOKS
TO KEEP ANY RAIN CHANCES VERY LOW (<10%). THOUGH, THE
DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN SOME SCT TO BKN VFR CIRRUS FOR THE
LATER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
YACK
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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