097
FXUS63 KLOT 130808
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
208 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) FOR LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES NEAR SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS RIDING OVER THE TOP OF A RIDGE
PLACED OVER THE ROCKIES, WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME RETURNS TO
CROP UP ON MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY OVER NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA, BUT ANY
"IMPACT" WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON NORTH OF I-80. TECHNICALLY, THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE
FOR SPRINKLES, BUT WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AND WEAK FORCING
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO
MORE SEASONAL NORMS IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
THAT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND WARMER/DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH 60S EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND
POTENTIALLY SOME 70S IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
A FAIRLY LARGE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER CANADA AND INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. BREEZY WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND SWITCH THE THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE
LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE PATH OF THE TROUGH FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE LAKES,
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA IS ARE NOT HIGH. AND
WHILE THOSE CHANCES ARE NON-ZERO, IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
LIKELY THAT IF ANYONE DOES GET A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS, IT MAY BE
CONFINED TO NORTHWEST INDIANA.
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER
AIR ADVECTION TO DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. RHS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S, WITH CONTINUED BREEZY WINDS. FOR
THERE TO BE ANY REAL THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS, WINDS
AND RHS WOULD NEED TO BE MARKEDLY STRONGER AND DRIER,
RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER, THIS COULD BE A WINDOW TO MONITOR FOR
POTENTIALLY SOME ELEVATED CONCERNS FOR FIELD AND GRASS FIRE
SPREAD.
OUT OVER THE PACIFIC, A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW IS THEN
PROJECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT CROSS THE ROCKIES AND
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. THERE
ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT WITH
BETTER MOISTURE CONTENT AND FORCING THERE ARE BETTER CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED REGARDING THE RISK FOR
ANY TYPE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW, RAIN WAS KEPT IN THE
GOING FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THE PLACEMENT OF THE COOLER
AIR AS WELL AS MORE MEMBERS THAN NOT KEEPING THINGS JUST WARM
ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIP. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MODEL SPREAD IS TOO
GREAT TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING, BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE
IS A SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT COULD IMPACT THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK.
DK
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO THE
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODEST WEST WINDS NEAR/JUST
UNDER 10 KTS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
BEFORE BACKING SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND SOUTH THURSDAY
NIGHT. RFD WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY
EVENING AND CAN'T RULE OUT A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT
ORD/MDW LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST, WITH PATCHY
HIGH CIRRUS AND A PERIOD OF BKN MID-LEVEL (~10 KFT) CLOUD COVER
LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY.
RATZER
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
IN NEARSHORE WATERS.
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