578
FXUS63 KLOT 131130
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
530 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) FOR LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES NEAR SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS RIDING OVER THE TOP OF A RIDGE
PLACED OVER THE ROCKIES, WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME RETURNS TO
CROP UP ON MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY OVER NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA, BUT ANY
"IMPACT" WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON NORTH OF I-80. TECHNICALLY, THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE
FOR SPRINKLES, BUT WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AND WEAK FORCING
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO
MORE SEASONAL NORMS IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
THAT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND WARMER/DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH 60S EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND
POTENTIALLY SOME 70S IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
A FAIRLY LARGE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER CANADA AND INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. BREEZY WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND SWITCH THE THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE
LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE PATH OF THE TROUGH FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE LAKES,
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA IS ARE NOT HIGH. AND
WHILE THOSE CHANCES ARE NON-ZERO, IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
LIKELY THAT IF ANYONE DOES GET A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS, IT MAY BE
CONFINED TO NORTHWEST INDIANA.
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER
AIR ADVECTION TO DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. RHS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S, WITH CONTINUED BREEZY WINDS. FOR
THERE TO BE ANY REAL THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS, WINDS
AND RHS WOULD NEED TO BE MARKEDLY STRONGER AND DRIER,
RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER, THIS COULD BE A WINDOW TO MONITOR FOR
POTENTIALLY SOME ELEVATED CONCERNS FOR FIELD AND GRASS FIRE
SPREAD.
OUT OVER THE PACIFIC, A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW IS THEN
PROJECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT CROSS THE ROCKIES AND
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. THERE
ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT WITH
BETTER MOISTURE CONTENT AND FORCING THERE ARE BETTER CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED REGARDING THE RISK FOR
ANY TYPE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW, RAIN WAS KEPT IN THE
GOING FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THE PLACEMENT OF THE COOLER
AIR AS WELL AS MORE MEMBERS THAN NOT KEEPING THINGS JUST WARM
ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIP. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MODEL SPREAD IS TOO
GREAT TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING, BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE
IS A SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT COULD IMPACT THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK.
DK
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
A SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AIRSPACE TODAY,
LEADING TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS (SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT). WIND
DIRECTIONS AT THE START OF THE TAF SHOULD BE WEST TO EVEN
NORTHWESTERLY, BEFORE SETTLING SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING. WITH
IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR SURFACE DECOUPLING, WINDS MAY BACK SOUTH TO
LOCALLY SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION IS
THEN PREFERRED BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
A SCT TO BKN CLOUD DECK AT 10KFT WILL SLIDE OVER THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GIVING WAY TO SCT CLOUDS AT 25-30KFT.
BORCHARDT
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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