232
FXUS63 KLOT 140503
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1103 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) FOR LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES NEAR SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH THE RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY AND ON
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY SHOULD LARGELY END UP IN
THE 60S, AS A NORTHWARD SURGE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
DAY DRIVES SURFACE DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE 40S INTO THE LOW 50S BY
SUNSET. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S FRIDAY NIGHT, ACTING
AS A FLOOR FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. ACCORDINGLY, EXPECT A
RATHER WARM NIGHT FOR MID NOVEMBER.
THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH CONTINUES IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY START
THE DAY, ALONG WITH THE NON-ZERO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR EVEN DRIZZLE. OTHERWISE, BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHWESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE COLDER AIRMASS WILL LAG THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, SO
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 60S
TO AROUND 70.
DRY AND COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE SLATTED TO RETURN
FOR SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF SATURDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK, THOUGH WE
WILL ALSO HAVE A COUPLE OF INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST WILL COME MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A
DISTURBANCE EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSPPI VALLEY. CURRENTLY
IT APPEARS THE P-TYPES MAY FAVOR MAINLY RAIN WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER, THE COLUMN LOOKS TO BE PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO
SUPPORTING SOME WET SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN IL, SO THIS SOMETHING WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT,
I OPTED TO NOT ALTER THE NBM CHANCES FOR JUST RA.
OUR NEXT THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO COME LATER IN THE WEEK
IN RESPONSE TO A LARGER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STORM SYSTEM
SHIFTING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPI VALLEY
REGION. NOT SURPRISING, THERE IS STILL A LARGE DEAL OF ENSEMBLE
SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM, WHICH DOES LIMIT CONFIDENCE IN A MORE
PRECISE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. NEVERTHELESS, THERE IS A NOTABLE
SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF WETTER WEATHER
IN OUR GENERAL REGION LATER NEXT WEEK.
KJB
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE 06Z TAFS:
- LLWS CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO 45 KT LOW LEVEL
JET.
- POTENTIAL FOR MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS HAVING TURNED LIGHT
SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE A BIT TO NEAR 10 KTS FRIDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT LATER IN THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION, THOUGH SHALLOW MIXING
LOOKS TO KEEP WINDS IN CHECK. DEEPENING OF THE LOW TO OUR NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF A 45 KT SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL JET, WHILE SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE
10-15 KT RANGE. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODEST LLWS CONDITIONS DURING
THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SURFACE
GUSTS DURING THE NIGHT AT ORD/MDW, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CLOUD-WISE, THE BROKEN VFR MID-DECK IS EXITING THE REGION TO THE
EAST, WITH JUST SOME PATCHY HIGH CIRRUS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. VFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT DOES
APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN OVERNIGHT, THOUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. A SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ARRIVES FRIDAY EVENING HOWEVER, WITH THE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL WINDS. THIS LOOKS TO HAVE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING
MVFR STRATUS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
RATZER
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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