662
FXUS63 KLOT 141905
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
105 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY.
- BLUSTERY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT,
THEN DRY AND MUCH COLDER FOR SUNDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 105 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO FOSTER UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. FOLLOWING A AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 60S, BREEZY SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABNORMALLY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH READINGS NOT EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW THE LOW TO MID 50S.
THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH CONTINUES IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. SOME LOWER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY MIDDAY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS,
POTENTIALLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 MPH WILL START THE DAY, BUT
DIRECTIONS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SINCE THE COLDER AIRMASS WILL LAG
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT WELL INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 FOLLOWING THE VERY WARM START
TO THE MORNING.
DRY AND COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 40S) ARE SLATTED TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF
SATURDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK, THOUGH WE WILL ALSO HAVE A COUPLE OF
INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST WILL COME
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE SHIFTS EASTWARD
OUT ACROSS THE MID- MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRECIPITATION TYPES
CONTINUE TO FAVOR MAINLY RAIN WITH THIS DISTURBANCE, BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A MIX OF WET
SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN IL MONDAY NIGHT.
OUR NEXT THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THEN LOOKS TO COME LATER IN THE
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LARGER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STORM SYSTEM
SHIFTING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPI VALLEY
REGION. THERE IS STILL A LARGE DEAL OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH THE
SPECIFICS OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
NOTABLE SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF WETTER
WEATHER IN OUR GENERAL REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
KJB
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
MAIN CONCERN:
- POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LOWER MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING.
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT WILL LIKELY
BECOME CLOSER TO DUE SOUTHERLY FOR A TIME THIS EVENING. AS A
LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS UP OVERNIGHT, FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR TOO
MARGINAL FOR TRUE LLWS CRITERIA, THOUGH WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE. ANTICIPATING
SOME PATCHY LOWER MVFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY, THERE'S A SIGNAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
SOUTHWESTERLY (220-240 DEG) GUSTS TO ~25-30 KT OVER THE CHICAGO
METRO ONCE MIXING TAPS INTO THE DEPARTING LOW-LEVEL JET WINDS.
THIS IS ALSO THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR PATCHY MVFR CIGS
(MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). LATE SATURDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO WESTERLY, WITH DIRECTION VEERING TO WEST-
NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS GUSTS REACH INTO THE MID 20S KT
RANGE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE.
CASTRO
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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