184
FXUS63 KLOT 150525
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1125 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY.
- BLUSTERY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT,
THEN DRY AND MUCH COLDER FOR SUNDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 105 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO FOSTER UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. FOLLOWING A AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 60S, BREEZY SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABNORMALLY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH READINGS NOT EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW THE LOW TO MID 50S.
THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH CONTINUES IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. SOME LOWER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY MIDDAY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS,
POTENTIALLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 MPH WILL START THE DAY, BUT
DIRECTIONS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SINCE THE COLDER AIRMASS WILL LAG
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT WELL INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 FOLLOWING THE VERY WARM START
TO THE MORNING.
DRY AND COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 40S) ARE SLATTED TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF
SATURDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK, THOUGH WE WILL ALSO HAVE A COUPLE OF
INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST WILL COME
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE SHIFTS EASTWARD
OUT ACROSS THE MID- MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRECIPITATION TYPES
CONTINUE TO FAVOR MAINLY RAIN WITH THIS DISTURBANCE, BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A MIX OF WET
SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN IL MONDAY NIGHT.
OUR NEXT THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THEN LOOKS TO COME LATER IN THE
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LARGER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STORM SYSTEM
SHIFTING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPI VALLEY
REGION. THERE IS STILL A LARGE DEAL OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH THE
SPECIFICS OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
NOTABLE SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF WETTER
WEATHER IN OUR GENERAL REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
KJB
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE 06Z TAFS:
- LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AT CHICAGO TERMINALS
SATURDAY MORNING.
- SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME BREEZY AFTER SUNRISE, THEN TURN WEST-
NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTS 25+ KTS
LIKELY, EVEN SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER PERHAPS A BRIEF LULL AFTER
SUNSET.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH SUNRISE WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTS 25-30 KT LIKELY
AFTER SUNRISE AS WE BRIEFLY MIX INTO A DEPARTING LOW-LEVEL JET.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE MORNING, SHIFTING
WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST AND REMAINING GUSTY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF
A LULL IN GUSTS AFTER SUNSET, THOUGH A RENEWED PUSH OF COLDER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN GUSTY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AGAIN
BY LATE EVENING. HAVE HELD GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS, THOUGH THERE
COULD BE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS AT TIMES.
RATZER
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 4 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
WINTHROP HARBOR IL TO GARY IN.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR IN-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO
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