773
FXUS63 KLOT 162100
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
300 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
- ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY-
THURSDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
THROUGH TUESDAY:
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY COMING OFF THE VERY LOW DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
YIELD GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LEANED TOWARDS COLDER
GUIDANCE IN FAVORED COOL SPOTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS (LOCALIZED
LOW 20S), WITH MID-UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT LOW-MID 30S IN
CHICAGO AND NEAR THE NW INDIANA SHORE.
MONDAY WILL START OUT CALM AND DRY WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
GIVING WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND THEN GRADUALLY LOWERING
BASES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A CLOSED
MID-UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL TIGHTEN THE THERMAL GRADIENT DRAPED
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH F-GEN PROCESSES LIKELY RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF BANDED PRECIP INTO THE EVENING, INITIALLY ALOFT
DUE TO THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT LOWER LEVELS. SOME SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET FOR THE NORTHWEST 2/3 TO 3/4 OF THE CWA.
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR TOP-DOWN SATURATION TO FULLY FIGHT
THROUGH THE LINGERING DRY AIR, SO STEADY/MEASURABLE PRECIP
COVERAGE MAY BE SOMEWHAT SPOTTY UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING. IN
ADDITION, DUE TO THE ANTECEDENT DRY LOWER LEVELS, THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE/WET BULB COOLING FOR WET SNOW TO MIX IN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
EVENING (OR EVEN SPOTTY ICE PELLETS AT ONSET). WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AIR TEMPS AND MILD GROUND TEMPS WILL PRECLUDE ANY
IMPACTS EVEN IF WET SNOW OCCURS, HOWEVER.
INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO AT TIMES MODERATE RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY, ALBEIT PROBABLY STILL WITH SOME BANDED COMPONENT. SOME
EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR/WEST OF I-39,
THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON'T LOOK FAVORABLE FOR ANY THUNDER
MENTION. THE FOOTPRINT OF STEADY RAIN WILL PROBABLY CONTRACT AND
FOCUS NORTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY
AS THE CLOSED LOW WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN WAVE. LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AND END BY MID TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS EAST. CLOUDS AND PERIODIC RAIN WILL
KEEP TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOWER-MID 40S IN MOST SPOTS ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
STRATUS SHOULD LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
LIMITING THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES, AMIDST OTHERWISE QUIET
WEATHER. THE LATE IN THE WORKWEEK TIMEFRAME CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN PERIOD OF INTEREST FOR THE NEXT ROUND(S) OF RAIN. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO EXHIBIT CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY
REGARDING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION, OWING TO THE
TRAJECTORY AND STRENGTH OF A SHORT-WAVE POTENTIALLY EJECTING
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ON THURSDAY, PROBABLY PAIRED WITH
INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE, PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON,
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT (PERHAPS WITH ISOLATED
EMBEDDED T-STORMS). THIS IS WHEN THE GUIDANCE VARIABILITY
REALLY LOWERS FORECAST CONFIDENCE, WITH THE ECMWF/EPS SUITE THE
MOST BULLISH IN BRINGING THE TROUGH INTO OUR AREA INTO FRIDAY.
EVEN WITHIN THE EPS SUITE, THERE'S LESS THAN HALF MEMBER SUPPORT
FOR THE STRONG, SLOW MOVING SYNOPTIC SYSTEM DEPICTED ON THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL RUN. HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT WILL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE IF FRIDAY ENDS UP HAVING INCLEMENT WEATHER AND THE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS POSSIBLY EVEN HANGING ON INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE WEEKEND SHOULD THEN END ON A DRY AND SEASONABLE NOTE.
CASTRO
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
BEFORE WINDS ABATE AROUND SUNSET. SKIES SHOULD BE GENERALLY
CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, THEN
SOME HIGHER LEVEL VFR CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD
OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KJB
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WINTHROP
HARBOR IL TO GARY IN.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR GARY TO BURNS
HARBOR IN-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO
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