923
FXUS63 KLOT 100505
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1105 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY (GUSTS
TO 35-40 MPH).
- THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXISTS FOR THE
WED AM COMMUTE DUE TO A PERIOD OF WIND-WHIPPED SNOW.
- MORE FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN OR NEAR OUR AREA
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
AND ESPECIALLY THIS COMING WEEKEND, WHEN DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED AT TIMES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 854 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST TONIGHT.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SINCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AS HAVE SURFACE DEW
POINT AND WET BULB TEMPS. THUS THE THREAT OF FREEZING PRECIP HAS
ENDED.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RISE SLIGHTLY INTO
THE MID-UPPER 30S THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS RAMP UP AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE
IN ADVANCE OF 990 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY TRACKING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN MN. LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE TRENDS
CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ACROSS IA AND INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IL, AND SUPPORTS THE DAY
SHIFT'S CALL ON NOT ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA.
THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO PASS JUST NORTH OF CHICAGO JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, TRAILING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL THEN SHIFT BLUSTERY WINDS TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER
20S/LOWER 30S BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE MORNING, GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF WRAP-AROUND SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA FROM ROUGHLY 6-8 AM THROUGH LATE MORNING. AGAIN,
GOING FORECAST LOOKS VERY REASONABLE IN DEPICTING THIS PERIOD
OF WIND-BLOWN SNOW AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS (LESS THAN AN INCH)
AND HAVE MADE NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.
RATZER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
TWO PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND THEN A PERIOD OF MODERATE
SNOW OR SNOW SQUALLS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOME SUNSHINE EARLIER TODAY AND WARMER AIR ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 30S FOR THE SOUTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA OR SO. LOW CLOUDS LIMITED SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WHERE TEMPS ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING.
WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S, TEMPS
MAY ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES WITH SUNSET BEFORE RISING AGAIN
DURING THE EVENING. THE CHALLENGING PART IS HOW MUCH TEMPS MAY
DROP BEFORE OR DURING THE PRECIP ARRIVAL ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
CWA, WHICH MAY RESULT IN A SHORT DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN ON
LESSER TRAVELED PAVEMENT.
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS JUST A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
FROM A DIXON TO MCHENRY LINE. HAVE ONLY TWEAKED THIS BY
MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS FOR FREEZING RAIN, BUT SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH, MAINLY FROM A ROCHELLE TO WAUKEGAN LINE, THOUGH OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME SNOW THAT MIXES WITH
THE RAIN, OR FREEZING RAIN, THIS EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA. WITH THE SHORT DURATION OF ANY POSSIBLE FREEZING
RAIN, WILL CONTINUE WITH AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL RAIN BY MID EVENING AND THEN IS
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AT LEAST A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION FALLING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH SUNSET, THEN
WILL STEADILY INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30-40
MPH RANGE AND THEN SHIFT WESTERLY OVERNIGHT. WHILE IT WILL
REMAIN WINDY, THE STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA AND NOT PLANNING ANY WIND ADVISORIES AT
THIS TIME.
MUCH OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE SHIFTED FROM SHOWING MAINLY SNOW
SQUALLS WEDNESDAY MORNING, TO NOW SHOWING A BAND OF SNOW ALONG
THE FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE RESULTS MAY BE THE
SAME, A SHORT PERIOD OF WIND BLOWN MODERATE SNOW WITH LOW
VISIBILITY AND MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DURING OR TOWARD THE END
OF THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL. INITIALLY, TEMPS MAY
BE AROUND FREEZING AND MARGINAL FOR ACCUMULATION, BUT IT APPEARS
TEMPS WILL DROP AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER 30S WITH THE SNOW AND
PERHAPS UPPER 20S AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND IF THE
SNOW IS INDEED MODERATE, THEN SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION, LESS
THAN ONE INCH, IS POSSIBLE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST IN AND
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA. CMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
AN ACTIVE BELT OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
PERSIST IN TANDEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOWER-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
ORIENTED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH LATER THIS WEEKEND. ACCORDINGLY, THE PARADE OF
OF CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEMS DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR GENERAL
REGION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH EACH ONE COMING WITH
GOOD CHANCES (50%+) OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN OUR VERY NEAR OUR
AREA.
THERE ARE CURRENTLY TWO DISTINCT PERIODS OF POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING
SNOW WE ARE WATCHING FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST, LOOKS TO COME WITH A CLIPPER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY, WITH THE SECOND COMING
WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER ON SATURDAY. EACH CLIPPER IS LIKELY TO LAY
DOWN A ~150 MILE WIDE SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW, WITH AN EVEN
NARROWER CORRIDOR OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS (PERHAPS IN
EXCESS OF 4"), FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE MAIN QUESTION THAT REMAINS, IS WHICH AREAS WILL BE
FAVORED FOR SOME OF THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS AND RATES.
ULTIMATELY, THIS WILL BE TIED TO THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOWER-
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE THE STRONGEST MESOSCALE FRONTOGENETIC
RESPONSE CAN BE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SNOW RATES.
CURRENTLY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS FAVORING AREAS SOUTHWEST OF THE
CHICAGO METRO AREA FOR SOME OF THESE POTENTIAL HIGHER SNOW RATES
FROM THE FIRST CLIPPER (THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY), WITH
GENERALLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN THE CHICAGO AREA. WITH THAT BEING
SAID WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AS THERE STILL CONTINUES TO BE
SOME SPREAD. FOR THE SATURDAY CLIPPER, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
A SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE SWATH OF BETTER ACCUMULATIONS
COULD BE A BIT FARTHER TO THE NORTH, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING MORE
OF NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWESTERN IN. IN ADDITION, THE SATURDAY
SYSTEM IN PARTICULAR MAY FEATURE NOTABLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO
(~12:1) SNOW RATIOS. NEVERTHELESS, WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY
PERSISTS WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THESE TWO PERIODS FOR
POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL FROM ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN, OR
VERY NEAR, THE AREA.
ASIDE FROM THE SNOW POTENTIAL, THE OTHER WEATHER CONCERN THIS
WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE THE VERY COLD CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER
ARCTIC AIRMASS ENGULFS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE ENSEMBLE SIGNAL FOR THIS REMAINS STRONG, AND CURRENT
INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY SUPPORT UPPER SINGLE DIGIT TO
TEENS HIGH TEMPERATURES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AT OR BELOW ZERO IN
MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. MOST CONCERNING IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF BLUSTERY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THIS
DEEP COLD OVER THE WEEKEND AND PRODUCE SUBZERO WIND CHILLS,
POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS -15 TO -25 BELOW EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
KJB
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
THROUGH AROUND 10Z, SHRA WILL GRADUALLY END WHILE VFR CEILINGS
LOWER INTO MVFR LEVELS. MEANWHILE, SSW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30
KNOTS.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 KNOTS DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WILL STEEPEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SUPPORT LIGHT SHRASN. A NNW WIND SHIFT WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS
WILL THEN OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE/13Z AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND
OF SN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SNSQ THROUGH MID-MORNING. BRIEF BURSTS
OF IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITY WITH NNW GUSTS NEARING 40 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE 13 TO 16Z WINDOW.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH WHILE SETTLING NW THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE SCATTERING OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF FLURRIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING.
KLUBER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 210 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI THIS EVENING AND CROSS SOUTH/CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST GALES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY LATE THIS EVENING, TURNING WESTERLY OVERNIGHT THEN SHIFT TO
THE NORTH BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SPEEDS, LIKELY
IN THE 40KT RANGE WITH PERHAPS A FEW HIGHER GUSTS, ARE EXPECTED
WHEN THE WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GALES EXPECTED
TO END BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. CMS
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WINTHROP HARBOR IL
TO GARY IN.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GARY TO BURNS HARBOR
IN-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN.
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