140
FXUS63 KLOT 160832
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
232 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SHORT PERIOD OF SNOW THIS MORNING AND SCATTERED GUSTY SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, MAY BOTH BRING
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
- TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE (20-40%) OF SNOW TO
THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING.
- BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS 15 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO
POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY PINWHEEL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH VARIOUS WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
NEXT OF WHICH WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD OF SNOW CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS WI INTO EASTERN IA. THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW FREEZING. AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 ARE MOST FAVORED
AND WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW AN INCH, THERE
MAY BE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS, WITH AREAS SOUTH OF I-80
PERHAPS ONLY SEEING A DUSTING.
AS THIS PRECIP SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE MORNING, A BRIEF LULL IS
EXPECTED INTO EARLY/MID AFTERNOON WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR BOTH HOW STRONG THESE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE (AND WHETHER THEY ARE SNOW SQUALLS) AND FOR COVERAGE.
FOR NOW HAVE CAPPED POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE, BUT AS TRENDS
EMERGE, POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED. SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE CHALLENGING WITH PERHAPS NARROW SWATHS OF SNOW
AMOUNTS TO AN INCH WITH MOST AREAS ONLY SEEING TRACE/DUSTING.
COULD BE SOME FLURRIES TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR A WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A SECOND WAVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING. THOUGH THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY FOR HOW STRONG THESE
WILL BE, HOW FAR SOUTH THEY WILL MOVE, HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE AND THUS HOW MUCH SNOW MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER, LOW
CHANCE POPS ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 SEEM REASONABLE FOR BOTH OF
THESE TIME PERIODS FOR NOW, BUT HIGHER POPS MAY BE NEEDED AS
TRENDS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
THE MAIN SURGE OF COLDER AIR THEN ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT AND THERE
COULD BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS ARCTIC FRONT. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND
PERHAPS ANY ADDITIONAL WAVES THAT MAY BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA,
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY FOR TEMPS/CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. BUT AS THE BLENDED GUIDANCE CURRENTLY STANDS,
LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS AND WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH
RANGE WOULD PUSH WIND CHILLS INTO THE 15 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO
RANGE FOR MONDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPS ONLY REBOUND TO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS/LOW TEENS MONDAY AND THEN LOWS AGAIN IN THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SOME AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES FOR A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, PERHAPS MAINLY NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA. TOO FAR OUT FOR ANY SPECIFICS, BUT WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE PERIOD OF SNOW. CMS
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOWFALL WITH IFR VISIBILITY WILL OCCUR AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THE CHICAGO METRO
TERMINALS.
- ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF STEADY SNOWFALL WITH IFR VISIBILITY
IS EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
- GUSTY SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED DURING THE 06Z TAF PERIOD
AS A SPRAWLING WEATHER SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES. AN
INITIAL ROUND OF SNOW IS ONGOING AT PRESS TIME AND IS ON TRACK
TO CONCLUDE BY 07-08Z AT THE CHICAGO METRO TERMINALS. BRIEFLY
IFR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR PRIOR TO THE SNOW ENDING.
THEREAFTER, A 4-6 HOUR LULL IN THE STEADIER SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH A TEMPORARY RETURN TO VFR CEILINGS
LIKELY AS WELL.
A SECOND WAVE OF STEADY SNOWFALL WILL ARRIVE AT THE TERMINALS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. MUCH LIKE THE FIRST ROUND OF SNOW, THIS
FOLLOW-UP ROUND OF SNOW WILL ALSO LIKELY LAST NO MORE THAN 2-4
HOURS AT ANY ONE LOCATION WHILE ALSO PRODUCING IFR VISIBILITIES
AND ANOTHER QUICK COATING OF ACCUMULATION. COULDN'T RULE OUT
SOME BRIEF LIFR VISIBILITY WITH THIS ROUND OF SNOW AS WELL, BUT
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY LOWER VISIBILITIES INTO THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.
ANOTHER LULL IN THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THE MID-LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. HOWEVER, SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
PRODUCE ON-AND-OFF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY EVENING TOMORROW. AIR TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID
30S BY THIS POINT SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT ANY DUSTINGS TO COLDER
AND GRASSY SURFACES, IF THAT. A FEW OF THE MORE ROBUST SNOW
SHOWERS COULD ALSO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 30
KTS.
ASIDE FROM THE PROBABLE PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS
ARE GENERALLY FAVORED TO STAY IN THE MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FROM
THIS MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH
THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR IFR CEILINGS TO BE OBSERVED BOTH DURING
AND JUST AFTER THE STEADIEST SNOWFALL THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE MORNING,
GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS ON AT LEAST AN OCCASIONAL BASIS.
THEY WILL THEN SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON,
THOUGH SIMILAR (OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER) WIND MAGNITUDES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RETAINED BEHIND THE FRONT.
OGOREK
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
THE UPCOMING EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF ICE ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS
WHICH MAY INCREASE THE CHANCE OF LOCALIZED ICE JAM FLOODING. LAST
WEEK'S HEAVY RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN INCREASED STREAMFLOW IN
SEVERAL BASINS, INCLUDING THE FOX, DES PLAINS, AND ILLINOIS RIVER
BASINS. THIS HIGHER STREAMFLOW WILL RESULT IN A GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZE UP ICE JAM FLOODING.
- IZZI
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE IL
AND IN NEARSHORE WATERS.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO
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