825
FXUS63 KLOT 161151
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
551 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SHORT PERIOD OF SNOW THIS MORNING AND SCATTERED GUSTY SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, MAY BOTH BRING
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
- TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE (20-40%) OF SNOW TO
THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING.
- BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS 15 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO
POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY PINWHEEL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH VARIOUS WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
NEXT OF WHICH WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD OF SNOW CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS WI INTO EASTERN IA. THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW FREEZING. AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 ARE MOST FAVORED
AND WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW AN INCH, THERE
MAY BE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS, WITH AREAS SOUTH OF I-80
PERHAPS ONLY SEEING A DUSTING.
AS THIS PRECIP SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE MORNING, A BRIEF LULL IS
EXPECTED INTO EARLY/MID AFTERNOON WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR BOTH HOW STRONG THESE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE (AND WHETHER THEY ARE SNOW SQUALLS) AND FOR COVERAGE.
FOR NOW HAVE CAPPED POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE, BUT AS TRENDS
EMERGE, POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED. SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE CHALLENGING WITH PERHAPS NARROW SWATHS OF SNOW
AMOUNTS TO AN INCH WITH MOST AREAS ONLY SEEING TRACE/DUSTING.
COULD BE SOME FLURRIES TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR A WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A SECOND WAVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING. THOUGH THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY FOR HOW STRONG THESE
WILL BE, HOW FAR SOUTH THEY WILL MOVE, HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE AND THUS HOW MUCH SNOW MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER, LOW
CHANCE POPS ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 SEEM REASONABLE FOR BOTH OF
THESE TIME PERIODS FOR NOW, BUT HIGHER POPS MAY BE NEEDED AS
TRENDS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
THE MAIN SURGE OF COLDER AIR THEN ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT AND THERE
COULD BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS ARCTIC FRONT. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND
PERHAPS ANY ADDITIONAL WAVES THAT MAY BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA,
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY FOR TEMPS/CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. BUT AS THE BLENDED GUIDANCE CURRENTLY STANDS,
LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS AND WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH
RANGE WOULD PUSH WIND CHILLS INTO THE 15 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO
RANGE FOR MONDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPS ONLY REBOUND TO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS/LOW TEENS MONDAY AND THEN LOWS AGAIN IN THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SOME AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES FOR A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, PERHAPS MAINLY NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA. TOO FAR OUT FOR ANY SPECIFICS, BUT WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE PERIOD OF SNOW. CMS
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
- A PERIOD OF -SN THIS MORNING WITH 1-2SM VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID MORNING.
- GUSTY -SHSN DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH
LOCALIZED VSBYS UNDER 1SM POSSIBLE.
A BAND OF SNOW IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH VSBYS HAVING DROPPED AS LOW AS 1 SM AT RFD. THE
LEADING EDGE IS ON THE DOORSTEP OF ORD AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR. SNOWFALL INTENSITY MAY VARY AT
TIMES WITH VSBYS DROPPING INTO THE 1-2 SM RANGE. ACCUMULATIONS
WITH THIS FIRST ROUND LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND HALF AN INCH OR SO
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST MID TO LATE MORNING.
THERE IS A CLUSTER OF OBSERVATIONS OVER NORTHEAST IA ON THE
BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW THAT HAVE DIPPED TO IFR. IT IS POSSIBLE
THIS DRIFTS INTO ILLINOIS BUT CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE
THAT IT PERSISTS THIS FAR EAST. HAVE HINTED AT THE POTENTIAL
BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON A FORMAL MENTION FOR NOW.
SCATTERED GUSTY SNOW SHOWERS MAY THEN DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING, POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS 19-20Z AT
RFD AND 20-21Z AT THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS. OPTED TO MENTION
1SM VSBYS IN THE TEMPO GROUPS AND SHIFT THE TIMING AN HOUR LATER
BUT VSBYS UNDER 1SM WILL BE POSSIBLE IF A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER
HAPPENS TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED
WITH LATER UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES. GIVEN TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON ANY INITIAL SNOW WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE ON PAVEMENT. AS TEMPERATURES FALL IN THE
EVENING, ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MORE READILY ACCUMULATE.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING THEN BECOMING WESTERLY DURING THE
DAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO NEAR
30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
PETR
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
THE UPCOMING EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF ICE ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS
WHICH MAY INCREASE THE CHANCE OF LOCALIZED ICE JAM FLOODING. LAST
WEEK'S HEAVY RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN INCREASED STREAMFLOW IN
SEVERAL BASINS, INCLUDING THE FOX, DES PLAINS, AND ILLINOIS RIVER
BASINS. THIS HIGHER STREAMFLOW WILL RESULT IN A GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZE UP ICE JAM FLOODING.
- IZZI
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE IL
AND IN NEARSHORE WATERS.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO
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