563
FXUS63 KLOT 171723
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1123 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW AND SLIPPERY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/ EVENING.
- BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS 15 BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO
POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST AND OPENS
TODAY, ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WHEN IT TOO BEGINS TO
WEAKEN. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW SPREADING AND DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
CONTINUING THROUGH MID EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATING BY LATE
EVENING. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THIS DRY AIRMASS, BUT
THESE LOW QPF EVENTS CAN STILL BE IMPACTFUL, ESPECIALLY WITH
THE COLD TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S EXPECTED TODAY AND
ACCUMULATION ON UNTREATED SURFACES. HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE
70-80% RANGE FOR AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-80. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY BE UNDER AN INCH WITH JUST A DUSTING FURTHER SOUTH.
NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A BLAST OF ARCTIC
AIR AND SIMILAR TO TODAY'S SYSTEM, SHOULD BE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF
EVENT. BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO THE
CWA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM
COULD BE IN THE ONE INCH RANGE, PERHAPS 1-2 INCHES ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST IL, TO A DUSTING ACROSS THE SOUTH. SIMILAR TEMPS IN
THE UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20 WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATION ON
UNTREATED SURFACES. WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE SNOW ENDS
SUNDAY EVENING. WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY INTO THE 30 MPH RANGE, SOME
BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT EVEN AFTER THE FALLING SNOW HAS
ENDED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIVING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND
LOWS AROUND ZERO IN THE NORTHWEST TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO ELSEWHERE LOOK ON TRACK. THE STRONG WINDS WILL PUSH WIND
CHILLS AS LOW AS 25 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO 20 BELOW
TO 15 BELOW ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. TOO EARLY FOR ANY
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES, BUT IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE, WILL NEED
TO CONSIDER ONE FOR THE NORTHWEST CWA MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS
BARELY REBOUND IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS/LOW TEENS MONDAY WITH
LOWS BACK IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY MORNING, POSSIBLY
JUST BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED
QUITE A BIT BY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT POSSIBLY STILL IN THE 10
MPH RANGE WITH WIND CHILLS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE.
RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES FOR A
BRIEF MODERATION OF TEMPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH TEMPS
ON TUESDAY BACK IN THE 20S AND POSSIBLY UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ON
WEDNESDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THIS
CLIPPER. BLENDED GUIDANCE NOW HAS CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OR SO OF THE AREA AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW.
THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN
FOR OR NEAR THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE THE ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW A
DECENT SPREAD IN POSSIBILITIES, THIS TIME PERIOD HAS LOOKED
ACTIVE FOR THE PAST WEEK. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER PRECIP DEVELOPS
FOR THE LOCAL AREA, CURRENT TRENDS FAVOR A CONTINUED COLD/VERY
COLD PATTERN. CMS
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
ON-AND-OFF FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CENTERED IN THE DGZ STREAM OVERHEAD.
STEADY SNOW WILL DEVELOP/EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA AS A TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL IOWA
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER, LIFT
CENTERED DIRECTLY IN A LOW-CENTROID DGZ AND FILAMENTS OF
FRONTOGENESIS WILL SERVE TO CREATING DRY AND FLUFFY SNOW THAT
WILL BE EFFECTIVE AT LOWERING VISIBILITY. GENERALLY SPEAKING,
THE EXPECTATION IS FOR 2 TO 4 MILE VISIBILITY TO PREVAIL WITH
PERIODIC DROPS TO 1 TO 2 MILES FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. CIGS SHOULD HOLD NEAR 2000 FT DURING THE PERIOD OF
SNOW, AND WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO LOCALLY 1 INCH REMAIN ON TRACK
FOR THE TERMINALS.
SNOW RATES WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE TROUGH AXIS SHEARS OUT WHILE SHIFTING EASTWARD. CIGS MAY
ATTEMPT TO SCATTER AFTER DAYBREAK AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK
SOUTHWESTERLY.
YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE 3SM -SN TOWARD THE END OF
THE ORD/MDW 30-HOUR TAF WINDOWS, KEEPING IN MIND REFINEMENT IN
TIMING AND VISIBILITY WILL TAKE PLACE IN LATER TAF PACKAGES.
BORCHARDT
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE IL AND IN NEARSHORE WATERS.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS TO THE
REGION, WITH A PERIOD OF GALES EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY MONDAY. FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE IN NEARSHORE WATERS. CMS
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE UPCOMING EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF ICE ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS
WHICH MAY INCREASE THE CHANCE OF LOCALIZED ICE JAM FLOODING. LAST
WEEK'S HEAVY RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN INCREASED STREAMFLOW IN
SEVERAL BASINS, INCLUDING THE FOX, DES PLAINS, AND ILLINOIS RIVER
BASINS. THIS HIGHER STREAMFLOW WILL RESULT IN A GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZE UP ICE JAM FLOODING.
- IZZI
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WINTHROP
HARBOR IL TO GARY IN.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
WINTHROP HARBOR IL TO GARY IN.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GARY TO BURNS
HARBOR IN-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR IN-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN.
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