037
FXUS63 KLOT 180515
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1115 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND ONE
HALF INCH THROUGH MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY SLIPPERY TRAVEL
THROUGH MID-EVENING.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, WITH SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. STRONG WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WITH AN COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY BEHIND THE SNOW.
- BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS 15 BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO
POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ABOVE A
SHARPENING LOW- LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS BEEN ABLE TO WRING OUT
STEADY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE DAY. THE
RESULTANT AXIS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH EMBEDDED TRANSIENT BANDS OF
HEAVIER SNOW HAS SHIFTED INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS
THE ENTIRE AIRMASS PIVOTS SOUTHEAST. WHERE THE SYNOPTIC SNOW IS
OCCURRING, IMPACTS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LOW PER RECENT TRAVEL
WEBCAMS. THE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHEASTWARD TREK ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH MID-EVENING
BEFORE THE REMAINING FORCING FROM THE TROUGH AND ACCELERATING
BAROCLINIC/F-GEN AXIS WEAKEN AND EXIT THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND TEMPS REMAINING STEADY IN
THE MID TEENS, SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR
AREAS NORTH OF I-80. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A HALF INCH ARE
POSSIBLE, WITH LOCALIZED SWATHS OF AROUND AN INCH NORTH OF I-88.
MEANWHILE AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN COMMON
WITH DIURNAL SUPPORT. DRY LOW-LEVELS HAVE LIMITED PRECIP AT THE
SURFACE, WITH STRATOCUMULUS BASES GENERALLY 3-4KFT.
BEHIND THE EXITING SYNOPTIC SNOW THIS EVENING, SHALLOW STRATUS
FIRMLY IN THE DGZ SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WHILE
PRODUCING ON AND OFF FLURRIES.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING AS
MODEST LOW-LEVEL WAA ENSUES. A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA WILL STRENGTHEN WHILE TRACKING TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY. NOTABLE MID-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
SOMEWHAT COLLOCATED WITH THE LEFT-EXIT OF A 120 KNOT UPPER-JET
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE ASCENT FOR PRECIP GENERATION OVER THE AREA
MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING. FULL TOP-DOWN SATURATION WILL
BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE APPRECIABLE SNOW
EVENT, WITH QUESTIONS HOW MUCH OF THE ROBUST SNOW ALOFT REACHES
THE SURFACE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TOTALS AROUND AN INCH OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA, THOUGH GIVEN THE
FORCING NOTED ABOVE, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE SYSTEM
OVERPERFORM WITH HIGHER TOTALS IF SATURATION IS PREVALENT.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING, USHERING IN RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPS WITH WNW/NW GUSTS TO
40-45MPH. SOME GUSTY SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT. BY DAYBREAK MONDAY, THE COMBINATION OF TEMPS AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT
IN WIND CHILL READINGS RANGING FROM -15 TO -25, LOWEST WEST OF
THE FOX RIVER VALLEY WHERE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED. HIGHS MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 10 DEGREES, WITH
MAXIMUM WIND CHILLS REMAINING SOLIDLY BELOW ZERO. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH PASSES SOUTH OF
THE AREA, BUT WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -15 DEGREES CAN BE EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING.
KLUBER
RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES FOR A
BRIEF MODERATION OF TEMPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH TEMPS
ON TUESDAY BACK IN THE 20S AND POSSIBLY UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ON
WEDNESDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THIS
CLIPPER. BLENDED GUIDANCE NOW HAS CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OR SO OF THE AREA AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW.
THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN
FOR OR NEAR THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE THE ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW A
DECENT SPREAD IN POSSIBILITIES, THIS TIME PERIOD HAS LOOKED
ACTIVE FOR THE PAST WEEK. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER PRECIP DEVELOPS
FOR THE LOCAL AREA, CURRENT TRENDS FAVOR A CONTINUED COLD/VERY
COLD PATTERN. CMS
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WITH IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD.
- WINDS WILL TURN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AND GUST TO AROUND 30-35
KTS BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TOMORROW NIGHT.
SATURDAY EVENING'S SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AT THE
CHICAGO METRO TERMINALS THROUGH 06-07Z. HOWEVER, FLURRIES MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE MVFR/LOW-END VFR
STRATUS REMAINS OVERHEAD.
WHILE THE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD LARGELY CLEAR OUT BY MID-MORNING,
ANOTHER CLIPPER-TYPE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON, BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW WITH
IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CEILINGS. ANOTHER 0.5-1.5" OF
DRY/FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ROUND, WITH
A LOWER-END CHANCE FOR A LOCALIZED 2" SOMEWHERE AS WELL. THIS
NEXT ROUND OF STEADIER SNOWFALL SHOULD LARGELY CONCLUDE PRIOR
TO MIDNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT, BUT AGAIN, FLURRIES OR EVEN A FEW
ADDITIONAL BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AFTER THE MAIN WAVE OF SNOW HAS ENDED.
SUSTAINED WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PRIMARILY BETWEEN 10
AND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
DURING THE LATE EVENING BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. GUSTS NEAR
AND IN EXCESS OF 30 KT ARE LIKELY TO BE OBSERVED FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OGOREK
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE IL AND IN NEARSHORE WATERS.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS TO THE
REGION, WITH A PERIOD OF GALES EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY MONDAY. FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE IN NEARSHORE WATERS. CMS
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE UPCOMING EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF ICE ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS
WHICH MAY INCREASE THE CHANCE OF LOCALIZED ICE JAM FLOODING. LAST
WEEK'S HEAVY RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN INCREASED STREAMFLOW IN
SEVERAL BASINS, INCLUDING THE FOX, DES PLAINS, AND ILLINOIS RIVER
BASINS. THIS HIGHER STREAMFLOW WILL RESULT IN A GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZE UP ICE JAM FLOODING.
- IZZI
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE IL AND IN
NEARSHORE WATERS.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
WINTHROP HARBOR IL TO GARY IN.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR IN-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR GARY TO BURNS HARBOR IN-BURNS HARBOR
TO MICHIGAN CITY IN.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page