116
FXUS63 KLOT 090453
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1053 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS A 1002 MB SURFACE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW ATTEMPTS TO
BECOME BETTER DEFINED SOUTH OF IT. COULD SEE SOME ATTEMPTS AT
RENEWED STRATUS DEVELOPMENT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT HELPS MOISTEN THE 800-950 MB LAYER, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE AS
A WHOLE STILL SUGGESTS THAT LOW-LEVEL SATURATION WON'T BE DEEP
OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DRIZZLE. EVEN
THE OVERLY-MOIST NAM HAS TRENDED LOWER WITH ITS DEGREE OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE, SO HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW.
WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BECOME MORE APPARENT
TOMORROW AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY. IN SPITE OF INCREASING AND
THICKENING UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER, THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S ACROSS PRIMARILY
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. FARTHER TO THE EAST
(PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE A RELATIVELY DEEPER SNOWPACK
REMAINS IN PLACE), HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE MID-
UPPER 30S.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
CENTER(S) WILL EVENTUALLY REACH NORTHERN ILLINOIS TOMORROW
NIGHT AND TRACK ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DRIZZLE NEAR/ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER, THE SIGNAL FOR THAT IN
THOSE MODELS DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT ROBUST, AND WITH THE
MAJORITY OF FORECAST GUIDANCE STILL FAVORING A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN THE ABSENCE OF BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, HAVE
CONTINUED TO WITHHOLD ON A FORMAL DRIZZLE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST GRIDS.
WHILE AN INITIAL PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
MAY STUNT DIURNAL WARMING ATTEMPTS IN THE HOURS JUST AFTER
SUNRISE, IT NEVERTHELESS STILL APPEARS THAT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
MAY OCCUR EARLY ENOUGH FOR INCREASING QUANTITIES OF SUNSHINE TO
PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 40S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
OUR FORECAST AREA ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY, WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT COOLER (THOUGH STILL NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST
FOR A WHILE LONGER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
MULTIPLE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE THEN FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND. DEPENDING ON THEIR EXACT EVOLUTION (AND THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH AS IT
SETTLES SOMEWHERE NEAR OR EAST OF OUR AREA), OUR NEXT
OPPORTUNITIES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY ARISE -- PRIMARILY
FOCUSED DURING THE LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND
AGAIN SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE SPREAD
REMAINS QUITE VAST FROM THURSDAY ONWARD, AND THERE ARE MULTIPLE
POTENTIAL OUTCOMES THAT KEEP MOST OR ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE LOWER-END CHANCE POPS OFFERED BY THE NBM
DURING THE TIME FRAME IN QUESTION THUS CONTINUE TO LOOK
REASONABLE FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT.
OGOREK
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY AVIATION MESSAGES FOR THE 06Z TAFS:
- SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.
MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF 160-170 DEG FOR ORD ESPECIALLY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING.
- PERIOD OF LLWS LIKELY LATE MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH SW
WINDS 45+ KTS 1500-2000 FT AGL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
DRIFT EAST BY MID-LATE MORNING, ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER SOUTH BY
MIDDAY. DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 170-190 DEG RANGE,
WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF 160-170 DEG
EARLY MONDAY EVENING. WINDS THEN GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWEST LATE
MONDAY/EVENING OVERNIGHT, POSSIBLY WITH SOME SPORADIC GUSTS
AROUND 20 KT. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS DEVELOPMENT OF A
WSW 45-55 KT LOW LEVEL JET ABOVE 1500 FT AGL LATE MONDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A LLWS THREAT OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD THE 12Z
END OF THE ORD/MDW FORECASTS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR ORD/MDW, WITH SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATED FROPA JUST BEYOND 12Z.
CLOUD-WISE, A RIBBON OF 5-6 KFT STRATUS HAS STALLED ACROSS THE
AREA SINCE SUNSET AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH SOME GRADUAL LOWERING INTO THE 3500 FT RANGE BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT AND SHIFTING EAST. OTHERWISE, MAINLY MID-LEVEL
VFR (15 KFT AND ABOVE) CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
RATZER
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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