659
FXUS63 KLOT 090727
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
127 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
A PERSISTENT STRATUS LAYER WITH BASES AROUND 5-7 KFT SHOULD
GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEAST AND SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THIS MORNING
AS THE CLOUD-BEARING FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WE'LL CONTINUE TO PICK UP ADDITIONAL
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, BUT PRECIP-
FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WARM ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY A
BIT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO
THE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CWA, EVEN AMIDST
TEMPERED INSOLATION WITH THE INCOMING CIRRUS CLOUD COVER.
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT, A MODEST 1005 MB SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. AHEAD OF THE LOW, AN
IMPRESSIVE LLJ IS FORECAST TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH
GUIDANCE RESOLVING 55-60 KT FLOW AROUND 900 MB. NEAR-SURFACE
STABILITY WILL LIMIT MUCH OF THIS MOMENTUM FROM TRANSFERRING TO
THE GROUND, BUT SOME INTERMITTENT GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. EVENTUALLY, A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ASIDE FROM THE TYPICALLY
TOO-MOIST NAM/NAMNEST, NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR DRIZZLE AS
THE LOW PIVOTS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND HAVE RESULTANTLY
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST.
IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE, FAIRLY STOUT
PRESSURE RISES (5-6 MB/3 HRS) COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD FACILITATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY WNW/NW
WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. NBM WINDS LOOK
UNDERDONE IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ON TUESDAY, AND SUSPECT
SOME BOOSTING WILL BE NECESSARY WITH GUIDANCE SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF 30 MPH GUSTS POST FROPA. EVEN WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE
THEY'LL MANAGE TO TO PUSH INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION, AND EVEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S SOUTH OF I-80.
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IS SLATED TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. EPHEMERAL/DISORGANIZED MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS 700-600 MB
CONFLUENCE INCREASES AS AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OUT OF
THE DAKOTAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A DECENT AMOUNT OF
ANTECEDENT DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPS, SO THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER
PRECIPITATION (SNOW) WILL BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH. NBM POPS ON
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT HAVE BEEN PRETTY STEADY IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE AND THIS STILL LOOKS REPRESENTATIVE AT THIS POINT
WITH RELATIVELY BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW TO OUR WEST.
ON FRIDAY, A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE APPEARS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS
BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO SONORA, MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE
ARKLATEX ON SATURDAY. WHETHER OR NOT THIS WAVE LOOSELY PHASES
WITH A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES REMAINS A BIT
UNCLEAR, BUT THESE FEATURES COLLECTIVELY MAY BRING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP BACK INTO PARTS OF THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.
CARLAW
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY AVIATION MESSAGES FOR THE 06Z TAFS:
- SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.
MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF 160-170 DEG FOR ORD ESPECIALLY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING.
- PERIOD OF LLWS LIKELY LATE MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH SW
WINDS 45+ KTS 1500-2000 FT AGL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
DRIFT EAST BY MID-LATE MORNING, ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER SOUTH BY
MIDDAY. DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 170-190 DEG RANGE,
WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF 160-170 DEG
EARLY MONDAY EVENING. WINDS THEN GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWEST LATE
MONDAY/EVENING OVERNIGHT, POSSIBLY WITH SOME SPORADIC GUSTS
AROUND 20 KT. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS DEVELOPMENT OF A
WSW 45-55 KT LOW LEVEL JET ABOVE 1500 FT AGL LATE MONDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A LLWS THREAT OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD THE 12Z
END OF THE ORD/MDW FORECASTS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR ORD/MDW, WITH SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATED FROPA JUST BEYOND 12Z.
CLOUD-WISE, A RIBBON OF 5-6 KFT STRATUS HAS STALLED ACROSS THE
AREA SINCE SUNSET AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH SOME GRADUAL LOWERING INTO THE 3500 FT RANGE BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT AND SHIFTING EAST. OTHERWISE, MAINLY MID-LEVEL
VFR (15 KFT AND ABOVE) CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
RATZER
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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