878
FXUS63 KLOT 091708
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1108 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
A PERSISTENT STRATUS LAYER WITH BASES AROUND 5-7 KFT SHOULD
GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEAST AND SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THIS MORNING
AS THE CLOUD-BEARING FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WE'LL CONTINUE TO PICK UP ADDITIONAL
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, BUT PRECIP-
FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WARM ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY A
BIT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO
THE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CWA, EVEN AMIDST
TEMPERED INSOLATION WITH THE INCOMING CIRRUS CLOUD COVER.
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT, A MODEST 1005 MB SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. AHEAD OF THE LOW, AN
IMPRESSIVE LLJ IS FORECAST TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH
GUIDANCE RESOLVING 55-60 KT FLOW AROUND 900 MB. NEAR-SURFACE
STABILITY WILL LIMIT MUCH OF THIS MOMENTUM FROM TRANSFERRING TO
THE GROUND, BUT SOME INTERMITTENT GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. EVENTUALLY, A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ASIDE FROM THE TYPICALLY
TOO-MOIST NAM/NAMNEST, NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR DRIZZLE AS
THE LOW PIVOTS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND HAVE RESULTANTLY
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST.
IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE, FAIRLY STOUT
PRESSURE RISES (5-6 MB/3 HRS) COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD FACILITATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY WNW/NW
WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. NBM WINDS LOOK
UNDERDONE IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ON TUESDAY, AND SUSPECT
SOME BOOSTING WILL BE NECESSARY WITH GUIDANCE SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF 30 MPH GUSTS POST FROPA. EVEN WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE
THEY'LL MANAGE TO TO PUSH INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION, AND EVEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S SOUTH OF I-80.
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IS SLATED TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. EPHEMERAL/DISORGANIZED MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS 700-600 MB
CONFLUENCE INCREASES AS AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OUT OF
THE DAKOTAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A DECENT AMOUNT OF
ANTECEDENT DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPS, SO THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER
PRECIPITATION (SNOW) WILL BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH. NBM POPS ON
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT HAVE BEEN PRETTY STEADY IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE AND THIS STILL LOOKS REPRESENTATIVE AT THIS POINT
WITH RELATIVELY BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW TO OUR WEST.
ON FRIDAY, A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE APPEARS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS
BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO SONORA, MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE
ARKLATEX ON SATURDAY. WHETHER OR NOT THIS WAVE LOOSELY PHASES
WITH A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES REMAINS A BIT
UNCLEAR, BUT THESE FEATURES COLLECTIVELY MAY BRING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP BACK INTO PARTS OF THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.
CARLAW
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
A VIGOROUS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL RACE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WITH A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, THE
PRIMARY IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE EXPRESSED VIA WINDS.
TO START, SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION (180 TO 200 DEG) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TOWARD SUNSET, WIND DIRECTIONS MAY RESPOND TO SURFACE
DECOUPLING BY TURNING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST (160 TO 180 DEG),
BEFORE TURNING BACK SOUTHWESTERLY BY MIDNIGHT. A STOUT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET (45-50KT AT 2KFT) WILL DEVELOP
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, LEADING TO LLWS. AFTER
DAYBREAK, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AIRSPACE CAUSING
SURFACE WINDS TO TURN NORTHWEST (310 DEG OR SO). EFFICIENT
MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT PREVAILING GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
BORCHARDT
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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