251
FXUS63 KLOT 101951
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
151 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING 7 DAYS, PARTICULARLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 151 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
A BROAD AND WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
BEFORE A QUICK-MOVING WAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TO MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT BELOW A SLOW-
MOVING RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CORRESPONDINGLY,
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH AN ASSOCIATED
FRONTOGENESIS CIRCULATION. WHILE TOP-DOWN SATURATION SHOULD
EVENTUALLY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA, IT REMAINS
UNCLEAR IF HIGHER PRECIP RATES ALOFT WILL REACH THE WESTERN CWA
BEFORE BETTER FORCING WEAKENS AND/OR EXITS EASTWARD. HAVE
MAINTAINED A 20% CHANCE OF POPS PRIMARILY WEST OF THE CHICAGO
METRO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH LOW-LEVEL WET- BULB
PROFILES SUPPORTING AN INITIAL RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANGING TO SNOW
IF PRECIP WERE TO OCCUR. ANY PRECIP SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING SHIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY.
A DOMINANT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OVER THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA
LATE THIS WEEK WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS A
FASTER CLUSTER OF DISTURBANCES TRACKS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND BRITISH COLUMBIA TOWARD THE FAR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED ITS DRAMATIC
SHIFT TO A SOLUTION WITH NO INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS, WHICH ULTIMATELY RESULTS IN A MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEEKEND FOR OUR AREA. IN FACT, ABOUT 80% OF ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS NOW SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN 2/3
OF THE CWA. WILL STILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS AS AT
LEAST 10% OF MEMBERS (PRIMARILY CMC AND A FEW EPS) ARE HOLDING
ON TO AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO STREAMS AND RESULTANT
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN
THE EVENT PRECIP DOES EXPAND WELL NORTH INTO THE AREA,
WIDESPREAD RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED AREAWIDE ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.
A LARGE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL EDGE EASTWARD OVER THE MID AND
UPPER-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK, SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM PERIOD TO THE SOUTHWEST
THAT MAY EXTEND TO THE LOCAL AREA.
KLUBER
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTING INTO THE LOWER 20 KT
RANGE, WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUST FREQUENCY
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK
TOMORROW. MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY ACROSS IOWA AND WISCONSIN MAY
SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, OCCASIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD.
BORCHARDT
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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