540
FXUS63 KLOT 110923 CCA
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
323 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING 7 DAYS, PARTICULARLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN NE AND WESTERN IA WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY RESULTING IN A RATHER PLEASANT
LATE WINTER AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS WILL STILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST, SPEEDS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIGHT (AROUND 10-15 MPH)
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL ADVECTION OF COLDER AIR. COUPLE
THIS WITH THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE
FOR TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID-40S AREAWIDE.
GIVEN HOW TEMPERATURES OVERPERFORMED YESTERDAY DID OPT TO NUDGE
THEM UP AGAIN TODAY BUT WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS
IT IS UNCLEAR IF AFOREMENTIONED TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE
SUFFICIENT OR NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS ANOTHER COUPLE
DEGREES.
AS THE HIGH SLIDES THROUGH OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL LIGHTEN
FURTHER AND BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING.
REGARDLESS, INCREASING CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE
HIGH WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER MI AND IN ON THURSDAY, ITS
INFLUENCE IS STILL EXPECTED TO KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
MILD TEMPERATURES IN PLAY. WITH THE SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THURSDAY,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TODAY )LOW TO
MID-40S) DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER. THOUGH IF CLOUDS THIN OUT
QUICKER THAN FORECAST THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS COULD BE
REALIZED.
HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A NON-ZERO CHANCE (10-15%) FOR A PERIOD
OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ITS ASSOCIATED JET STREAK DIVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK OFF ON THE
COVERAGE OF SAID PRECIPITATION LIKELY DUE TO THE F-GEN
CIRCULATION FORECAST TO SET UP MORE INTO CENTRAL IA AND MOISTURE
TO BE MUCH MORE LIMITED ESPECIALLY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. THAT
SAID, THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS THAT SHOW
SOME MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING IN NORTHWEST IL WHICH
COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SPIT OUT SOME PRECIPITATION SO HAVE OPTED
TO KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR FAR WESTERN CWA FOR ONE
MORE CYCLE. IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR IT SEEMS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR IT TO FALL AS MAINLY RAIN,
BUT IF SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING OCCURS THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN-SNOW MIX OR EVEN STRAIGHT SNOW MAY BE SEEN. THOUGH NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO EJECT INTO THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS ON FRIDAY AND THEN THE SOUTHERN US OVER THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE WILL ALSO BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT THESE TWO FEATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL AWAY FROM NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN. THEREFORE, THE POPS
OFFERED BY THE NBM HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE FOR US THIS
WEEKEND WITH ONLY 15-20% POPS STILL LINGERING IN OUR SOUTHERN
CWA. CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO REMOVE THESE LINGERING POPS, BUT
WITH STILL A HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD BRUSHING OUR SOUTH, OPTED TO
LEAVE THEM ALONE FOR NOW, BUT SUSPECT OUR AREA WILL BE MOSTLY DRY.
REGARDLESS, EXPECT TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.
FINALLY, THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY MAKING A RUN AT
THE 60S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE REASON WILL BE DUE TO A
BROADER TROUGH ESTABLISHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND
GENERATING SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER, WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THERE MAY
ALSO BE A PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BREAKS OFF THE MAIN TROUGH AND EJECTS
EASTWARD. NOW WHERE EXACTLY THIS SHORTWAVE TRACKS AND WHAT IF ANY
IMPACTS IT MAY BRING TO NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, BUT SOMETHING WE WILL BE WATCHING AS WE GET CLOSER.
YACK
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF CYCLE. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE WITH A FEW HOURS OF AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20KT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WINDS/GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AT SUNSET.
- IZZI
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GARY TO
BURNS HARBOR IN-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page