372
FXUS63 KLOT 221133
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
633 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PASSING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING WILL BRING BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY.
- COOLER WEATHER PERSISTS ON MONDAY, BEFORE TEMPERATURES
MODERATE INTO MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND ON THE DOOR-STEP OF
THE STATE LINE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE FIRST FRONT BY A FEW HOURS. CURRENT TEMPS IN THE
60S OVER THE FORECAST AREA REPRESENT THE CALENDAR DAY HIGHS
TODAY AS TEMPS TUMBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, CLEARING AT
LEAST THE I-80 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
BY NOON. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME QUITE BLUSTERY WITH NORTHEAST
GUSTS OF AROUND 30 MPH ADVECTING GRADUALLY COLDER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMP CHANGE BETWEEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RUN SOME 35 TO 40 DEGREES COLDER FOR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ADDITIONALLY, LOW-LEVEL STRATUS AND POSSIBLY
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE SHOULD GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHWARD BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A BAND OF ANAFRONTAL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ENTRANCE OF A MODEST MID-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
OR (MOST LIKELY) EAST OF THE CHICAGO METRO THIS AFTERNOON.
THE CENTER OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS OVER OR JUST NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A LINGERING RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THOUGH SKIES
SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY, HIGHS INLAND
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S WHILE HIGHS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY FAIL TO REACH 40F. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 50S
UNDER A POTENTIALLY THICK CIRRUS CANOPY.
OVERALL WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
MIDWEEK BEFORE A LONGWAVE TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DURING THIS TRANSITION, A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
COLLECTIVELY, THEY WILL SHARPEN A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT MAY
WAFFLE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA
SOMETIME ON THURSDAY. THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE FLIP-FLOPPING
FROM GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD, SO CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TEMP
TRENDS (DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING) AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS SOME STORMS REMAINS LOWER AT THIS TIME. SOLUTIONS WITH
A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER ON THURSDAY SUPPORT ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY WITH A NON-ZERO RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS,
THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING FROM A STRONG EML MAY BE PRESENT.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TIMING OF THURSDAY'S SYSTEM, ANOTHER
COOL BUT DRY STRETCH IS FAVORED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
KLUBER
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
- GUSTY NNE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY
- MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN
LOOK FOR NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 15-25KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
OVER 30KT TODAY. WINDS AND GUSTINESS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY EASE AWAY FROM THE LAKE THIS EVENING, BUT LIKELY
REMAINING GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING AT ORD, MDW, AND GYY.
ONLY CONCERN OTHER THAN WINDS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE GUIDANCE THAT HAD BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE CIGS HAS BEEN BACKING ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR CIGS.
EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OBSCURES THE LOWER STRATUS
TO OUR NORTH, BUT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS DO SHOW STRATUS OVER
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DEVELOPING/SPREADING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN CIGS IS VERY LOW TODAY AND EVEN INTO
THIS EVENING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE
CLOSE TO THE LAKE AND HAVE MAINTAINED MVFR AT GYY BEGINNING
LATER THIS MORNING. AT ORD AND MDW, HAVE BACKED OFF OF MVFR DUE
TO LOWER CONFIDENCE, BUT THERE IS STILL A THREAT OF MVFR CIGS
FOR A TIME, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS AND MAY NEED TO REINTRODUCE MVFR CIGS
IF IT BECOMES CLEARED BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THAT MVFR
WILL INDEED IMPACT ORD AND MDW.
- IZZI
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE IL
NEARSHORE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT
MONDAY FOR THE IN NEARSHORE WATERS.
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