044
FXUS63 KLOT 221738
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PASSING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING WILL BRING BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY.
- COOLER WEATHER PERSISTS ON MONDAY, BEFORE TEMPERATURES
MODERATE INTO MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND ON THE DOOR-STEP OF
THE STATE LINE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE FIRST FRONT BY A FEW HOURS. CURRENT TEMPS IN THE
60S OVER THE FORECAST AREA REPRESENT THE CALENDAR DAY HIGHS
TODAY AS TEMPS TUMBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, CLEARING AT
LEAST THE I-80 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
BY NOON. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME QUITE BLUSTERY WITH NORTHEAST
GUSTS OF AROUND 30 MPH ADVECTING GRADUALLY COLDER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMP CHANGE BETWEEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RUN SOME 35 TO 40 DEGREES COLDER FOR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ADDITIONALLY, LOW-LEVEL STRATUS AND POSSIBLY
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE SHOULD GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHWARD BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A BAND OF ANAFRONTAL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ENTRANCE OF A MODEST MID-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
OR (MOST LIKELY) EAST OF THE CHICAGO METRO THIS AFTERNOON.
THE CENTER OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS OVER OR JUST NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A LINGERING RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THOUGH SKIES
SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY, HIGHS INLAND
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S WHILE HIGHS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY FAIL TO REACH 40F. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 50S
UNDER A POTENTIALLY THICK CIRRUS CANOPY.
OVERALL WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
MIDWEEK BEFORE A LONGWAVE TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DURING THIS TRANSITION, A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
COLLECTIVELY, THEY WILL SHARPEN A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT MAY
WAFFLE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA
SOMETIME ON THURSDAY. THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE FLIP-FLOPPING
FROM GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD, SO CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TEMP
TRENDS (DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING) AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS SOME STORMS REMAINS LOWER AT THIS TIME. SOLUTIONS WITH
A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER ON THURSDAY SUPPORT ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY WITH A NON-ZERO RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS,
THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING FROM A STRONG EML MAY BE PRESENT.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TIMING OF THURSDAY'S SYSTEM, ANOTHER
COOL BUT DRY STRETCH IS FAVORED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
KLUBER
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 25-35 KT CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY ABATING.
- LOW MVFR CIGS ALSO EXPECTED TO PERSIST/MOVE INTO AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED, PARTICULARLY AT ORD AND MDW, WHERE SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS HAVE EXCEEDED 35 KT. WHILE SUCH GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, THINKING IS THAT THE
MORE FREQUENT GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE FOR THE
MAIN CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS, AND MORE IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE
AT KRFD AND KDPA. THE GUSTINESS WILL GRADUALLY ABATE THIS
EVENING. LIGHTER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY, THEN
SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A LAKE BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A RATHER EXPANSIVE DECK OF MVFR STRATUS ALSO CONTINUES TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWESTERN IN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO BE THE LOWEST (1,000-1,500 FT
AGL) CLOSER TO THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH MOST AREAS NOT
SCATTERING OUT UNTIL SOMETIME LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THEREAFTER, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY MONDAY.
KJB
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE IL AND IN
NEARSHORE WATERS.
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