269
FXUS63 KLOT 190732
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
232 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY AND SEASONABLY COOL TODAY.
- POTENTIAL (20-40%) FOR SOME GUSTY SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.
- FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CHICAGO AND
CENTRAL COOK COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
IT'S A CHILLY START TO OUR SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SITTING IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
CURRENTLY WILL CLOUD UP THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TRAVERSING THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE
BROADER UPPER TROUGH. THIS WAVE WILL WORK ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND
DRAG A BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL FEATURE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. THE WAVE IS SHARPENING UP OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING AND IS BRINGING POCKETS OF LIGHT
PRECIP TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. STEEP LAPSE RATES
BETWEEN 8 AND 9 K/KM FROM THE SURFACE TO 700-650 MB AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GENERATE A
LAYER OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL FORCING ALSO LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
PUT TOGETHER, WE HAVE A GOOD SIGNAL FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP, BUT SOME NOT-SO-LIGHT PRECIP IS ON THE TABLE AS WELL.
IT'S UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW MUCH WE'LL DESTABILIZE WITH SOME CAMPS
SUGGESTING THAT DEWPOINTS WILL MIX DOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
THE DRY NEAR-SURFACE AIR COULD HELP RELEGATE PRECIP TO LARGELY
SPRINKLES. OTHER CAMPS, SUCH AS THE MORE RECENT RAP RUNS, ARE
MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH THE THERMODYNAMICS SUCH THAT A FEW EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE RESOLVES
LARGELY TRACE AMOUNTS TO A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF QPF WITH
THIS, BUT A NUMBER OF HIGH RES CAMPS DEPICT STREAKS OF HIGHER
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO OR IN EXCESS OF A TENTH, SUGGESTING SOME
POCKETS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. PRECIP
WILL MOVE INTO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST CWA DURING THE MID-LATE
MORNING AND ACROSS THE I-55 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
PRIMARY TARGET AREA FOR PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH
OF A ROUGHLY LASALLE-TO-RENSSELAER LINE ALONG THE TRACK OF THE
WAVE WHILE AREAS FARTHER SOUTH SHOULD STAY DRY. PRECIP SHOULD
END IN OUR CWA BY EARLY EVENING AS THE WAVE PULLS AWAY TO THE
EAST.
ANOTHER QUESTION TO CONSIDER IS WILL WE SEE ANY SNOW OR WINTRY
MIX WITH PRECIP TODAY? WHILE SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
NEAR 50 DURING THE EVENT, WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AS LOW AS 1,000
FEET OFF THE GROUND MAY ALLOW SOME SNOW FLAKES TO REACH THE
SURFACE. GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIP AND
INSTABILITY EXTENDING THROUGH THE DGZ, A BONAFIDE GRAUPEL SHOWER
COULD EVEN BE IN THE CARDS. BETTER SNOW/MIX CHANCES MAY EXIST
ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST THIS MORNING GIVEN THE EARLIER TIMING
BEFORE THE BL CAN HEAT UP. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE THE STRONGER
SIGNAL FOR PRECIP EXISTS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT POST-FRONTAL PRECIP INTO EARLY
EVENING WHICH ALSO HAS A SEEMINGLY BETTER SHOT AT FEATURING SOME
SNOW. HOWEVER, THE WINTRY PRECIP POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE A LOW
ONE AND IN THE FORECAST, WENT WITH PRACTICALLY ALL LIQUID POPS.
DEEP MIXING WILL INTO AN ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL
ALSO PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS TODAY. AGAIN, UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE
DEPTH AND EFFICIENCY OF MIXING, BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 40 MPH, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO CENTRAL IL.
MORE FREQUENT WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-80. WINDS
WILL START OUT WESTERLY TODAY BEFORE VEERING TO NORTHWEST FOR
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S IN OUR NORTH TO MIDDLE
50S IN OUR SOUTH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY. THERE WON'T BE MUCH NOTEWORTHY COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE RESULTANT CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING. WITH LOWS STILL LOOKING LIKE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S,
DECIDED TO UPGRADE OUR FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL COOK COUNTY WHERE CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY STAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH, UPPER RIDGING SCOOTING EAST
INTO THE PLAINS WILL ADVECT A MUCH MILDER AIRMASS AND THE
EASTERN EDGE OF AN EML INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE 70S AROUND THE CWA. A SHORTWAVE
FEATURE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW MAY ATTEMPT TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, BUT LOTS OF CAPPING AND
LITTLE FORCING FAVOR LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL CENTER OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S
ARE FORECAST AWAY FROM THE LAKE. WINDS TURNING ONSHORE WILL KEEP
AREAS NEAR THE LAKE NOTABLY COOLER ON WEDNESDAY; LAKESIDE HIGHS
ARE FORECAST IN THE 50S. LOWER 80S ARE FORECAST ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
AND BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
DOOM
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WNW/NW THROUGH THE
MORNING, WITH INCREASING GUSTINESS EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. A FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THICKENING
VFR CLOUD COVER AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
TOWARDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DEEP MIXING WILL PROMOTE
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS (POTENTIALLY 35+ KNOTS)
NEAR ANY DEEPER SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND ATTENDANT
STRONGER WINDS IMPACTING INDIVIDUAL SITES REMAINS AROUND 30
PERCENT AT THIS TIME, AND HAVE CONTINUED PROB30 MENTIONS AS A
RESULT.
A FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE LAKE DURING THE EVENING, RESULTING IN
A NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT AT THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS. THERE IS A
SMALL THREAT FOR MVFR CIGS WITH THE FRONT, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE A CLOUD LAYER IN THE TAFS. WINDS MAY EVENTUALLY
TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
CARLAW
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ003-ILZ004-
ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-
ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039-ILZ106-ILZ107-
ILZ108.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-
ILZ013-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039-
ILZ103-ILZ105-ILZ106-ILZ107-ILZ108.
IN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT /10 AM EDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT CDT /1 AM EDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM
CDT /10 AM EDT/ MONDAY FOR INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-
INZ019.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE IL AND IN NEARSHORE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
IN NEARSHORE WATERS.
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