982
FXUS63 KLOT 170830
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
330 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING,
MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A PERU, IL TO
WAUKEGAN, IL LINE.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE.
- SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH AND BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
A PAIR OF MCVS ARE TRAVERSING SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS LIFTING
TOWARDS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF
THE SHORTWAVE, THE TWO MCVS SHOULD GET PUSHED NORTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN IA INTO SOUTHWEST WI THROUGH THE MORNING WHICH IN TURN
SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN NORTHWEST IL, EASTERN IA, AND SOUTHERN WI. HOWEVER,
WITH HOW BROAD THE RAIN SHIELD IS IN CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY
SUSPECT THAT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA (MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A PERU, IL TO WAUKEGAN,
IL LINE) AROUND DAYBREAK THROUGH LATE MORNING. WITH INSTABILITY
LOOKING RATHER LIMITED IN RECENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS THE THREAT
FOR THUNDER IN OUR AREA IS LOW, BUT CANNOT BE FULLY RULED OUT SO
HAVE MAINTAINED A 20% CHANCE FOR SUCH IN THE FORECAST.
ONCE THESE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS LIFT INTO WI LATER THIS
MORNING, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF OUR SUNDAY.
WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW, TEMPERATURES
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID-80S. HOWEVER, A WEAK FRONT AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS/STORMS IS
FORECAST TO SETTLE NEAR THE IL-WI LINE WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG THE NORTHERN IL SHORE AND THUS KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER IN THE 70S IN THESE LOCATIONS. ADDITIONALLY,
WINDS TODAY WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30
MPH. IN FACT IF DEEPER MIXING CAN BE ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON,
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35+ MPH MAY ALSO BE SEEN.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT, WIND GUSTS WILL EASE AS THE ATMOSPHERE
ATTEMPTS TO DECOUPLE, THOUGH WITH THE CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION
AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW IN THE PLAINS A FEW 20-25 MPH GUSTS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S (LOWER 70S CLOSER TO
CHICAGO).
WHILE WE ENJOY A GENERALLY QUIET NIGHT, THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BE EJECTING EASTWARD WITH A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE PATTERN IN THE PLAINS AND MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND IA ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL IN TURN MOVE
TOWARDS NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT, THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING (LIKELY
AFTER DAYBREAK). GIVEN THAT THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ARRIVE
DURING ON NON-DIURNALLY FAVORABLE TIME, INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND THEREFORE ALLOW THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO ENTER
IN A DECAYING STATE. HOWEVER, IF THE STORMS ARRIVE IN A MORE
ORGANIZED FASHION THE STEEP LAPSE RATES (AROUND 7-8 C/KM) AND
30-35 KTS OF SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS
CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
DEPENDING ON HOW WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
MONDAY MORNING WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL
STORMS DEVELOP IN OUR AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE GUIDANCE IS
IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS BEING IN A
DECAYING STATE (I.E. MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE), FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE WEAKLY CAPPED MONDAY
AFTERNOON. COUPLE THIS WITH THE FACT THAT THE BETTER FORCING IS
FORECAST TO RESIDE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN IA (CLOSER
TO THE UPPER TROUGH) AND MOST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT
NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN COULD STAY DRY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THAT SAID, IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON THE
WARM AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS IN COMBINATION WITH 40-45 KTS OF
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WITH WIND
PROFILES LOOKING MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL, THE MAIN THREAT WITH
ANY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
THOUGH, IF STORMS DEVELOP AND/OR LINGER INTO THE EVENING WHERE
THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THEN A TORNADO
THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE. BECAUSE OF THIS POTENTIAL THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS KEPT ALL OF NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN
IN A LEVEL 2 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY.
REGARDLESS OF HOW MONDAY AFTERNOON GOES, THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONCEPTUALLY SPEAKING, THE MORNING
ROUND OF STORMS ON TUESDAY SHOULD PUSH THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MORE INTO OUR EASTERN CWA (NAMELY AREAS EAST OF I-55)
AND THAT SHOULD BE WHERE THE BULK OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT
REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON RESIDE. NEVERTHELESS, ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE DUE TO THE 35-40 KTS OF SHEAR AND DECENT
INSTABILITY. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL, HOWEVER, AS WIND
PROFILES SHOULD BE UNIDIRECTIONAL BY THAT POINT.
OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
BOTH DAYS WILL ALSO FEATURE SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID-80S, THOUGH THE PRESENCE
OF STORMS COULD LIMIT WARMTH IN SOME LOCATIONS. WINDS BOTH DAYS
WILL ALSO BE BREEZY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS AROUND 25-35 MPH
EXPECTED.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THEREFORE, THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK
LOOKS TO BE RAIN FREE. TEMPERATURES THOUGH WILL BE NOTABLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
INLAND AND IN THE 50S NEAR THE LAKE DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS. AS WE
HEAD TOWARDS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. WHILE THIS SHOULD
ALLOW MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO RETURN AND WARM TEMPERATURES BACK
TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL VALUES, IT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
OBVIOUSLY CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE AND TIMING OF ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS IS LOW AT THIS RANGE SO STAY TUNED.
YACK
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE 06Z TAFS:
- PERIOD OF SHRA/POSSIBLE TSRA PREDAWN INTO MID-MORNING,
HIGHEST CHANCES AT RFD.
- WINDS GENERALLY SSE THROUGH THIS MORNING, THEN SOUTH WITH
GUSTS 25-30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS STAY BREEZY TONIGHT.
- WINDS MAY TURN MORE E OR EVEN NE FOR A TIME THIS MORNING NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN (ORD/MDW/GYY), THOUGH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN LOWER MI, SOUTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND IA TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
SOUTHEAST CO EARLY THIS MORNING. CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
IA AND NORTHERN MO, WITH A CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (MCV) NOTED OVER NORTHEAST MO. THIS MCV IS EXPECT TO
TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS, EVENTUALLY
SPREADING AN AREA OF RAIN/EMBEDDED TSRA INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN
IL/SOUTHERN WI. CURRENT CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GREATEST
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WOULD BE WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE CHICAGO
TERMINALS (RFD MORE LIKELY IMPACTED), THOUGH THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY MAY SWEEP ACROSS THE CHICAGO AREA TOWARD/AFTER
DAYBREAK. FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST, THERE IS ALSO SCATTERED TSRA
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI AT THIS TIME, THOUGH THIS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH/NORTHWEST OF RFD AT THIS TIME. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME
SHRA/VCSH MENTION AFTER 10Z, WITH PROB30 FOR TSRA AT ALL SITES
BUT GYY (MAY REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF MAIN TS THREAT AREA) IN THE
13-16Z TIMEFRAME. UNCERTAIN EXTENT OF COVERAGE OF TSRA AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH COULD FORESEE NEEDING A TEMPO ESPECIALLY FOR RFD.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. PRECIPITATION THREAT SHOULD END BY
MID-LATE MORNING AS THE MCV MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION.
IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING SHRA/TS, A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS
MORNING TO BECOME QUITE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTS 25-30 KTS APPEAR LIKELY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY A
BIT HIGHER. BREEZY SOUTH FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT WELL,
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LIKELY ABOVE 10 KTS AND AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND/ABOVE 20 KT POSSIBLE.
ONE CAVEAT TO WINDS THIS MORNING - THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN IS PUSHING SOUTH OVER THE COOL LAKE WATERS, AND
MAY MAKE IT INTO THE CHICAGO TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING (AFTER
10-11Z AT CURRENT SPEED OF THE FRONT) BEFORE STALLING OVER THE
AREA. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF WINDS IN
THE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST QUADRANTS FROM NEAR DAYBREAK UNTIL
LATER IN THE MORNING. DETAILS OF THE EXACT DIRECTION IS LESS
CERTAIN WITH QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE.
RATZER
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO
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