415
FXUS63 KLOT 041808
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
108 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED GRASS/BRUSH FIRE THREAT TODAY DUE TO UNSEASONABLY
WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
- LOW (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FRIDAY PM ALONG
WITH A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
TODAY WILL FEATURE WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BROAD/DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TAKES ITS PLACE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, GUSTING OCCASIONALLY AS
HIGH AS 25 MPH, WILL PUSH MID/UPPER 80 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ALL
THE WAY TO THE LAKE TODAY. THE ONE SMALL EXCEPTION MAY BE THE
EXTREME NE PARTS OF LAKE COUNTY, IL WHERE SOME ONSHORE COMPONENT
COULD LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES, RH VALUES FALLING TOWARDS 25 PERCENT, AND
THE DRY STATE OF FUELS WILL LEAD TO A MODESTLY ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AIRMASS WILL UNDERGO A SUBSTANTIAL CHARACTER CHANGE LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A PLUME OF DEEP TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO
OUR WEST FINALLY SLOSHES EASTWARD. AS THIS MOIST PLUME
ADVANCES, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS
OUR FAR NW ILLINOIS LOCALES TOWARDS THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON
FRIDAY.
SOMEWHAT OF A TRICKY FORECAST EVOLUTION IS APPARENT INTO LATER
FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOME (BUT NOT ALL) GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH AN INITIAL LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ADVANCING OVERHEAD DURING THIS TIMEFRAME (POTENTIALLY ALONG WITH
A CONVECTIVELY-AUGMENTED MCV), WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY 700 MB FLOW OCCURRING THROUGH MIDDAY. THE ECMWF
AND NAMNEST HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THIS SIGNAL OVER THE PAST
FEW MODEL CYCLES, AND NOW SEEING MORE OF THIS FLOW ENHANCEMENT
APPEARING ON GUIDANCE LIKE THE CMC AND GFS TO SOME DEGREE. MID
AND UPPER-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE THAT COLD--
ACTUALLY QUITE "MILD" FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH H5 TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -8 C. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY MUTED MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND ASSOCIATED OVERALL INSTABILITY EVEN THOUGH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED INSTABILITY (ASCENT ARRIVING
TOO EARLY IN THE DAY) AND A LACK OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER WIND
SHEAR SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THAT SAID, WITH A TROPICAL-LIKE ATMOSPHERE
ADVANCING INTO THE REGION, IT WON'T TAKE MUCH INSOLATION TO
ERODE SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. A SLOWER PROGRESSION
(SHORTWAVE ARRIVING MORE INTO THE MID AFTERNOON), OR MORE
INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASED THREAT FOR A FEW LOW-
TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND AN ATTENDANT BRIEF TORNADO THREAT GIVEN
ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS IN THE 0-4 KM LAYER. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, WITH
GENERAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
A NOCTURNALLY-INTENSIFYING LLJ INTERACTING WITH A REMNANT
QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE REGION LOOKS TO DRIVE AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SOMEWHAT STEEPER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD A BIT MORE MUCAPE DURING THIS PERIOD, AND
THE EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE
SOMEWHAT. THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION WITH A
THREAT FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE INCOMING
LLJ. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY THOUGH REGARDING BOTH THE ORIENTATION
OF THE LLJ (WEST-EAST VS SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST) AND LOCATION OF
THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E/MOIST AXIS, SO THERE REMAIN QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF NOCTURNAL
STORMS. IF ROBUST CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE REGION, UPWIND
CORFIDI VECTORS WEAKENING UNDER 10 KTS ELUCIDATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME TRAINING AS STRONG VEERING TAKES PLACE THROUGH 500 MB.
GIVEN ALL OF THE MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS RANGE, THE
GENERAL LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4 ERO LOOKS APPROPRIATE AT THIS RANGE.
SOME CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WITH THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE DEPARTING TO THE EAST, SYNOPTIC FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH, SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD
AS WELL. IF A MATURE/WIDESPREAD MCS DOESN'T PLOW THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD THEN BE POSSIBLE, FOCUSING ON ANY
REMNANT BOUNDARIES AND/OR A DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY FESTER INTO THE EVENING. ON
SUNDAY, THE MAIN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES LOOKS TO FOCUS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE CWA.
THE MOIST AXIS THEN LOOKS LIKE IT'LL ATTEMPT TO SLOSH BACK
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS AT TIMES.
CARLAW
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
KEY AVIATION FORECAST MESSAGES:
- PERIODS OF SHRA AND TSRA RETURN FRIDAY
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN EASE WITH SUNSET.
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING FROM IOWA. AN
INITIAL ARC OF SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE, REACHING RFD POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS 9-10Z AND THE
CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS CLOSER TO 11-12Z WITH CEILINGS VERY
GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH THE MORNING TOWARD MVFR IN THEIR
WAKE. AS WE GET LATER INTO THE MORNING TOWARD MIDDAY SHOWER
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER. HAVE SHIFTED THE TS MENTION A BIT LATER, TO THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS, FOR THE CHICAGO TERMINALS BASED ON A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS (RAINFALL RATES >1"/HR) AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS IN ADDITION TO OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOCUSING MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
CLUSTER OF STORMS FRIDAY MORNING THEN BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN
THEIR WAKE AND EASING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
PETR
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT /1 AM EDT/ TONIGHT FOR
INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019.
LM...NONE.
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