273
FXUS63 KLOT 061143
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
643 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING WILL
FOCUS PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-80, THOUGH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAKE BREEZE PUSHING INLAND.
- WHILE THERE WILL BE DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, EXPECT PLENTY OF DRY HOURS. OUTSIDE
OF THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES, IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID
(FOCUSED AWAY FROM THE LAKE UNTIL TUESDAY).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING:
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERHEAD IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS (AS OF THIS WRITING) IS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVELY
MODULATED IMPULSES AND A GLANCING BLOW FROM A STRONGER SHORT-
WAVE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES. IT'S UNCLEAR TO WHAT
EXTENT ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM WESTERN WI TO
WESTERN/WEST CENTRAL IL WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. WE'LL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A FEW STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS (WIND AND HAIL THREAT) GIVEN FAIRLY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION, ASIDE FROM A FEW
LINGERING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS SOUTH OF I-80,
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT AREAWIDE FOR A TIME. FAIRLY STRONG
MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-80,
CASTS DOUBT ON MUCH IN THE WAY OF RENEWED PM THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT IN THE CWA. THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES
INLAND ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH,
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-80 (POSSIBLY WELL SOUTH), UNCAPPED,
MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD YIELD CORRIDORS
OF SCATTERED "AIRMASS" TYPE THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES DECREASING TO 6C/KM OR LESS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOWN TO
25 KT OR LESS, OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED, LIKELY
RELEGATED TO LOCALIZED STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS.
IF A CORRIDOR OF ROBUST CONVECTION IS ABLE TO PERSIST INTO OR
THROUGH THE EVENING DESPITE MODEST AT BEST FORCING, HIGH PWATS
AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS COULD SUPPORT LOCALIZED FLOODING
(ALBEIT IN OUR TYPICALLY LESS FLOOD PRONE SOUTHERN AREAS).
GIVEN EXPECTATION OF INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT, LOOK FOR HIGHS INLAND OF THE
LAKE BREEZE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AMIDST DEW POINTS IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70F. NEAR THE LAKE, HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80F AHEAD OF THE LAKE BREEZE AND THEN SLOWLY BUT STEADILY
FALL THEREAFTER.
AFTER FESTERING EVENING STORMS PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-80 ERODE
DIURNALLY, THERE SHOULD BE A RELATIVE LULL OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE LAKE SHADOW WILL EXTEND FARTHER INLAND ON SUNDAY,
CONFINING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED PULSE AIRMASS CONVECTION
AT PEAK HEATING TO THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/3 TO 1/2 OR SO OF THE
CWA. SUB- MARGINAL WIND SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SEVERE
WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S
INLAND, BUT ONLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE LAKE.
SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD:
WEAKENING MID-UPPER LOW/SHORT-WAVE WILL SHEAR OUT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS ROBUST RIDGING CENTERED OVER
THE EASTERN LAKES BY THEN. NONETHELESS, WEAKLY CAPPED TROPICS-
LIKE AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND AT
LEAST SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MIDDAY MONDAY
(UNLESS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS PROVES TOO DETRIMENTAL TO SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION). SOUTHEASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW AND LAKE BREEZE
REINFORCEMENT WILL KEEP IL SHORELINE LOCATIONS IN THE 70S ON
MONDAY, WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA REACHES THE LOW-MID 80S.
LOOKING AHEAD AT THE REST OF NEXT WORKWEEK, THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
GUIDANCE MEMBERS WITH SUFFICIENTLY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING POKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
A FEW DAYS OF VERY WARM (LOCALLY HOT) AND HUMID CONDITIONS. WITH
THAT SAID, THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS OUR AREA BEING ON THE
PRECARIOUS NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE
EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD ENTAIL LESS CAPPING AND A CONTINUATION
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. BY LATER IN THE WEEK
(THURSDAY OR THEREABOUTS), SEASONABLY STRONG TROUGHING FROM THE
NORTH CENTRAL US TO CENTRAL CANADA COULD PLAUSIBLY YIELD A
PATTERN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION INTO
THE REGION.
NOTE THAT THE NBM DEPICTED TEMPERATURES CENTERED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY (MOST NOTABLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY) ARE WELL
OUTSIDE OF THE ENSEMBLE SPECTRUM DUE TO LIKELY SPURIOUS UPWARD
BIAS CORRECTION. THUS WE WILL WITHHOLD FROM ANY HEAT MESSAGING
LOCALLY. IT LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM AND HUMID, BUT NOT HAZARDOUSLY
SO, PER THE CURRENT GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
CASTRO
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
MAIN CONCERN:
- LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TS OR TWO OVER THE CHICAGO METRO
WITH THE EXIT OF STORMS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CHICAGO METRO
TERMINALS AS OF THIS WRITING, LINGERING CIGS AROUND 2KFT AGL
SHOULD SCATTER WITHIN THE 1-2 HOURS. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED EARLIER WITH THE INLAND PUSH OF THE LAKE BREEZE TODAY.
ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT TO 18Z AT ORD,
MDW, AND GYY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR FURTHER
TIMING ADJUSTMENTS ONCE THE BOUNDARY IS VISIBLE. DUE TO THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE SOME TOWERING CUMULUS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY, YIELDING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS (MAINTAINED PROB30 MENTION). CAN'T RULE OUT A TS OR TWO
(20% CHANCE) NEAR THE CHICAGO METRO TERMINALS, THOUGH BETTER
INGREDIENTS FOR STORMS WILL FOCUS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
SATELLITE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE TS
INCLUSION.
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND HUMID CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO PATCHY 3-6SM VSBY IN BR OUTSIDE OF
CHICAGO. A FEW TO SCATTERED 1-2KFT AGL CLOUDS MAY DRIFT IN OFF
THE LAKE.
CASTRO
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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