675
FXUS63 KLOT 092354
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
654 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SIGHT CHANCE EXISTS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WHILE POTENTIAL IS LOW, IT'S POSSIBLE
THAT A STORM BECOMES SEVERE.
- WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID WITH PEAK HEAT
INDICES IN THE 90S TO LOCALLY 100. THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORED ON WEDNESDAY INCLUDING UP TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE.
- A FEW ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR IN THE GENERAL
REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THURSDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE THE MOST CONCERNING DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOCALLY.
- FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND NOTICEABLY COOLER. A
GENERALLY COOL AND AT TIMES WET PATTERN WILL DEVELOP NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT...
OUR TUESDAY WAS LARGELY QUIET AND WARM THROUGH THE MORNING
ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE CHICAGO METRO. AS OF ABOUT 2
PM, TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MIDDLE 80S AND WE'RE NOW
SEEING A BROKEN CLUSTER OF EARLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
OF I-80 MOVING EAST. THESE ARE BUILDING OFF OF A VORT PLUME TIED
TO A DECAYING MCV THAT'S PUSHING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL. THESE
STORMS ARE RATHER GARDEN VARIETY AND DON'T THREATEN MUCH OUTSIDE
OF BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ISOLATED AND SOUTH OF I-80 BEFORE EVENTUALLY MOVING AWAY
TO THE EAST AS THE VORT DOES.
AN UPPER TROUGH SCOOTING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DIG EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AS THE TROUGH WORKS EAST, IT WILL SHUNT THE MID-ATLANTIC HIGH
OFFSHORE AND OPEN UP THE REGION TO A SOUTHERLY MASS RESPONSE
PUMPING A HOT LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AND ATTENDANT EML PLUME OVER
THE MIDWEST BEGINNING TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THURSDAY. A NW-SE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE EML PLUME WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHICH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COULD
TRIGGER A LINE OF LATE NIGHT CONVECTION. SOME LIFT WILL BE
NEEDED TO OVERCOME THE CAPPING INVERSION AND DRY EML BASE AND
TAP INTO THE 2,000 TO 3,000+ JOULES OF ELEVATED CAPE PROGGED
OVER THE CWA. MUCH BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES EXIST JUST WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ SHOULD DO WELL TO
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE KINEMATIC FORCING DWINDLES
QUICKLY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS NORTHERN IL. EFFICIENT
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS ALONG AND BEHIND THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY HELP MAKE UP FOR THE LESSER FORCING. MOST
RECENT CAM GUIDANCE DOES RESOLVE AT LEAST POCKETS OF CONVECTION
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. IF STORMS
DEVELOP, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN WITH PWATS STILL HANGING OUT ABOVE 1.5". IN THE
FORECAST, HELD ONTO TARGETED 30-40% POPS TONIGHT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A LEVEL 1 OF 5 MARGINAL RISK IN
OUR AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THAT (EVEN WARMER) AIR MASS, NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 70S TONIGHT LEADING
TO A SCORCHER TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE
LOWER 90S AREA-WIDE, INCLUDING UP TO THE LAKESHORE. DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 70S SHOULD PUSH HEAT INDICES NEAR OR POSSIBLY OVER 100
DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS LEFTOVER FROM TONIGHT
SHOULD WORK OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TOMORROW. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN MCS FIRING
UP EARLY TOMORROW IN SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO BENEATH A SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE
LOOKS TO HOLD TOGETHER, IF NOT INVIGORATE, AS IT TRACKS TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND ACROSS NORTHERN IL DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE HAS GROWN RECENTLY IN THE PRESENCE OF
SUCH A FEATURE, BUT MODEL DISCREPANCIES REMAIN IN THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR THIS POTENTIAL
WOULD BE MID-AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, ALTHOUGH SOME CAMS
STILL SUGGEST IT COULD APPROACH I-39 BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
AFTERNOON ENVIRONMENT WILL FEATURE LITTLE TO NO CAPPING TO OVER
4,000 JOULES OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND 25 TO 30 KT OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR, MODEST BUT CERTAINLY AMPLE. DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE THE BIGGEST CONCERN HERE, BUT SEVERE HAIL
WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. CAN'T RULE OUT A SPIN UP TORNADO EITHER
WITH A VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE AND AN UNSTABLE 0-3 KM
LAYER.
A MUCH SHARPER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE
LEE OF THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN UP A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS IA AND FIRE UP
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DURING THE DAY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS IL LATER IN
THE EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. THERE REMAINS A PLETHORA OF
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS FROM LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ON HOW THIS COULD
ALL PLAY OUT. AS THE WAVE GETS FURTHER DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHEAST, THE FRONT WILL GET LAID OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
TOMORROW NIGHT. WITH THE WONKY EVOLUTION OF THE FRONT, STORM
MOTIONS COULD VARY BETWEEN EASTWARD AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT NATURE, ANY STORMS THAT DO DECIDE TO
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MORE THAN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS GENERALLY LOW
DURING THE NIGHT AFTER THE LOW LEVELS STABILIZE. WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE OUT FOR ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH STORMS
TOMORROW WHICH COULD ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
OR A TRACK FOR TRAINING STORMS. WITH THEIR LATE MORNING UPDATE,
SPC EXPANDED THE DAY 2 LEVEL 3 OF 5 ENHANCED RISK EAST TO
INCLUDE ALL OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS, DRIVEN BY THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING TO DESTRUCTIVE WINDS BOTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE NIGHT.
THURSDAY...
THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER CAUTIOUSLY HOT DAY AROUND THE AREA.
THE EFFECTIVE FRONT IS PROGGED TO GET HUNG UP IN, OR JUST TO,
OUR NORTH AND HIGHS ARE AGAIN FORECAST IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST
WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES UP NEAR 100F.
A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL DEVELOP ON THE LEE OF THE
COLORADO ROCKIES TOMORROW NIGHT, PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD, AND
QUICKLY JOIN FORCES WITH THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE SURFACE RESPONSE WILL BE A TIGHTLY-WOUND
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CHARGING EAST
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW
CENTER SHOULD PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH WHILE THE COLD FRONT GETS
DRAGGED ACROSS THE CWA, AND MODELS AGREE ON A STRONGLY FORCED
LINE OF CONVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE EVENING.
THIS WILL BE A HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS
LEADING UP TO THURSDAY NIGHT OF NEARLY 10DAM/12HR. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE HIGHLY UNSTABLE FEATURING 3,000 TO 4,000+
J/KG OF UNCAPPED, SURFACE-BASED CAPE. SHEAR WILL BE MORE
SUPPORTIVE THAN TOMORROW WITH 35 TO 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR,
STILL NOT FANTASTIC BUT CERTAINLY MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED, SEVERE CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY WHEN COUPLED WITH THIS
SORT OF INSTABILITY. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A LEVEL 3 OF 5 ENHANCED
RISK AROUND THE AREA FOR THURSDAY, WHICH STILL SEEMS VERY
APPROPRIATE AS AN ALL HAZARDS SEVERE EVENT COULD BE ON THE
TABLE.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
FRIDAY WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. HIGH
PRESSURE WORKING IN TO OUR SOUTH WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO FRIDAY. AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY LOOK
SIMILARLY QUIET WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO GET BACK
INTO THE LOWER 80S, BUT ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FAVORED TO
SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER PASSING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
DOOM
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE...
TWO POSSIBLE LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AREAS OF FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING NEAR THE LAKE AND ORD/MDW.
CURRENT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT GYY FOR
THE NEXT HOUR BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING IS
SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED UNTIL THE PREDAWN HOURS WHEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS
HAVE BEEN DECREASING THIS POTENTIAL AND WHILE THE CHANCE IS
LOW, MAINTAINED A TWO HOUR PROB AROUND/JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK FOR
THIS POTENTIAL. IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP, COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE LOW.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A LINE OF
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS RACING ACROSS NORTHERN IL IN
THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. FURTHER TIMING TWEAKS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED BUT TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING AN EARLIER ARRIVAL,
PERHAPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IL. THE SPEED OF
THIS LINE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THUNDER ONLY LASTING 1-2 HOURS AT
ANY ONE LOCATION. GUIDANCE IS THEN SHOWING ANOTHER LINE OF
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING A FEW HOURS
BEHIND THE FIRST LINE AND AGAIN MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN IL. LOWER
CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SECOND LINE, BOTH FOR TIMING AND LOCATION. A
POSSIBLE OUTCOME WOULD BE FOR A SECOND LINE TO MOVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA THE FIRST LINE MOVES ACROSS. HOWEVER, PROB MENTION
WARRANTED WITH THE NEW 30 HOUR ORD/MDW TAFS FOR EARLY/MID
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS EARLY THIS EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT EASTERLY OR LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY BY MID/
LATE EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
SLOWLY TURN SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY DAYBREAK.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS INTO THE LOWER/MID 20KT RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
THOUGH PREVAILING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY THE
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WHILE THERE IS CURRENTLY NO FOG OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN,
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENTLY SHOWING FOG DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND
THEN MOVING IT INLAND AND AS FAR WEST AS ORD/MDW DURING THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS IS LOW, BUT IF THIS
FOG DOES DEVELOP, VISIBILITIES MAY BE LESS THAN 1SM, FOR AT
LEAST A FEW HOURS. OPTED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH A TEMPO
FOR NOW AND TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AND CHANGES ARE
LIKELY WITH LATER FORECASTS. CMS
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
IL AND IN NEARSHORE WATERS.
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