739
FXUS63 KLOT 090005
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
705 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COUPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, THE
FIRST ROUND IN THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THE
SECOND IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF STORMS WITH SECOND ROUND REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
- ANY STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE SEVERE, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS
POSSIBLE INCLUDING FLASH FLOODING.
- ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH MID-
WEEK WITH THE CHANCE THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
A SURFACE HIGH IS SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE THIS
MORNING'S COLD FRONT. DESPITE THE NORTHWEST WINDS AND THE HAZY
SKIES, TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM ANOTHER 2-3 DEGREES PRIOR TO
SUNSET. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID-60S.
WHILE WE ENJOY A QUIET SUMMER NIGHT TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BE EJECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SD AND MN OVERNIGHT THAT WILL GRADUALLY
WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-
LEVEL JET IN IA AND MO TONIGHT, BUT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
INCONSISTENT WITH COVERAGE OF STORMS THERE SO CONFIDENCE ON THAT
OCCURRING IS LOW. REGARDLESS OF WHAT DEVELOPS IN IA/MO TONIGHT,
THE NORTHERN COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO RIDE THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT AND DRIFT TOWARDS NORTHERN IL. INITIALLY IT LOOKED AS
IF THE BETTER INSTABILITY WOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR
AREA WHICH IN TURN WOULD KEEP STORMS OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, RECENT TRENDS NOW SHOW LAST NIGHT'S
FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WHICH LOOKS TO BRING THE BETTER INSTABILITY AXIS INTO
OUR AREA PRIOR TO THE COMPLEX ARRIVING. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.
SINCE THE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE PRIOR TO THE ATMOSPHERE
FULLY DESTABILIZING, THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE STORMS TO MOVE
THROUGH IN A DECAYING STATE. AS A RESULT, CONFIDENCE IN STORM
COVERAGE WITH EASTWARD EXTENT IS LOWER BUT THE THINKING IS AT
LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 9 AM AND 12 PM CDT. GIVEN THE DECAYING
NATURE OF THE STORMS, THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE MORNING LOOKS LOW
AT THIS TIME BUT INSTANCES OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL COULD OCCUR
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN WHICH WILL
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH. WHILE
CONFIDENCE ON THE SECOND ROUND OF STORMS OCCURRING IS FAIRLY
HIGH (70-80% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE), CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE
EXACT TIME STORMS WILL REDEVELOP AND WHERE THE GREATEST COVERAGE
WILL BE. THE REASON IS BECAUSE THE MORNING ROUND OF STORMS
COULD LIMIT HOW QUICKLY THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND THUS
DELAY THE REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
OR EVEN THE EVENING. REGARDLESS OF WHEN AND WHERE STORMS
INITIALIZE, THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE (MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 3000-5000
J/KG) WITH 35-45 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZING AND BECOMING SEVERE. THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WITH THE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS UPWARDS OF 60+
MPH, BUT INSTANCES OF HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VEERING
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD RESPECTIVELY. DUE TO THIS THREAT THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5)
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, THERE IS ALSO A
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING TO MATERIALIZE GIVEN THE
HUMID AIR MASS (PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES) AND FAVORABLE STORM
PARAMETERS. THE CONDITION, THOUGH, IS WHETHER OR NOT STORMS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OR IF
THEY REMAIN TRANSIENT ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY
ONE LOCATION. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES IN STORM
COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING
WE WILL BE MONITORING AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. FURTHERMORE, THERE
IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO KEEP FESTERING OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS UP IN THE PROXIMITY OF
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IF COVERAGE OF STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT
IS MORE EXPANSIVE, THEN THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING COULD
QUICKLY INCREASE ESPECIALLY IF COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS IS HIGHER. THAT SAID, THERE IS A CHANCE (20-30%) FOR A
SWATH OF 2-3+ INCH RAIN AMOUNTS TO OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN OUR
FORECAST AREA SO REMAIN ON GUARD PARTICULARLY IF YOU LIVE IN AN
URBAN OR LOWER-LYING AREA.
ANOTHER PERIOD(S) OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY,
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE WARM, HUMID, AND UNSTABLE WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT A FAIR COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE AND
THE EXACT TIMING OF STORMS REMAINS LOW AND WILL DEPEND ON HOW
STORMS EVOLVE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS, ANY
STORMS THAT MATERIALIZE ON MONDAY WILL ALSO HAVE A CHANCE TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THUS, SPC HAS
MAINTAINED ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING GIVEN
THE HUMID AIR MASS.
THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, THERE IS
THE CHANCE THAT AS REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS OCCUR FOR THE
EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE TO SHIFT SOUTH OF NORTHERN IL AND
NORTHWEST IN BUT CONFIDENCE ON WHEN OR IF THIS ACTUALLY HAPPENS
REMAINS LOW. THEREFORE, OUR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN, EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
TO PREVAIL WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
60S.
YACK
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
A COMPLEX FORECAST IS IN STORE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TS (SOME STRONG TO SEVERE) TO
AFFECT ALL TERMINALS. CURRENTLY, THERE ARE TWO MAIN FORECAST
SCENARIOS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD:
1) A MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND HIGH PLAINS DRY
LINE WILL ALLOW DEVELOPING CONVECTION TO GROW/CONGEAL INTO A
LARGER ORGANIZED TS COMPLEX OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.
THE COMPLEX WOULD TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS IN A DECAYING PHASE WITH ASSOCIATED GUSTY
WINDS MID TO LATE MORNING. BEHIND THE TS, WINDS WOULD SHIFT SE
OR EVEN E AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS. THE BOUNDARY WOULD THEN RETREAT NORTH LATER IN THE
DAY AND EVENING, PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR A 50 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET
TO INDUCE ROBUST TRAINING CONVECTION MID-EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE CHICAGO TERMINALS.
2) DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN THE HIGH PLAINS FAILS TO CONGEAL
INTO A TS COMPLEX. THE WAVE OVER MONTANA WOULD THEN PROVIDE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF STRONG TS TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
PUSH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, THE
BOUNDARY WOULD BE WEAKER AND MORE PRONE TO QUICKLY RETREAT TO
OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY THE EVENING. THIS WOULD LEAD TO
SEVERAL HOURS OF STRONG TS WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN OVER THE CHICAGO
TERMINALS WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET FOCUSED OVER THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IN BOTH SCENARIOS IS ABOUT EQUAL AT THIS TIME, BUT
IMPACTS FROM TS IN OR AROUND THE CHICAGO METRO LATER SUNDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING APPEAR
LIKELY.
KLUBER
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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