956
FXUS63 KLOT 141736
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE ACROSS
AREAS SOUTHWEST OF THE CHICAGO METRO THIS MORNING.
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAIN AND POTENTIAL
FLOODING LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
- A STORMY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
ONGOING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING OVER FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SUBSIDE SOON. HOWEVER,
CONTINUED WEAK LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH
SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY FOSTER CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK BEFORE THE
EXISTING MODEST LLJ VEERS AND DECAYS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR IF
ANY MCV DEVELOPS WITHIN ONGOING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL IOWA.
THIS WOULD REINVIGORATE SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS, WITH THE MOST
LIKELY MCV TRACK FAVORING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
A ROBUST CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
NEBRASKA IS SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCING A MID-LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE, THE VAST AMOUNT
OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TURN THIS WAVE INTO A WARM CORE LOW
THROUGH THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE/LOW WILL DRIFT ALONG A BROADER
RIDGE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH LATEST TRAJECTORIES FAVORING A TRACK
OVER OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN HIGH-END PWAT VALUES OF 2.3" TO POSSIBLY
UPWARD OF 2.5" AND EXPECTED SLOW FORWARD MOTION OF THE WAVE,
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RATES OF OVER 2" PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
AND ALONG THE TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE.
ADDITIONALLY, STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS OF ADVISORY CALIBER (AT
LEAST 45MPH) CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE TRACK. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR AREAS ROUGHLY AROUND
AND NORTH OF I-80 FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WILL
ALSO NEED TO MONITOR A THREAT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTIVE LINEAR
ELEMENTS CAPABLE OF TRANSPORTING CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WIND TO
THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE WAVE.
ANOTHER WAVE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED IN THE
LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA SOMETIME DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE DICTATED BY THE EXPECTED TIMING OF
THE FRONT, WITH A LATER ARRIVAL IN THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTING
HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS AND A MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND RISK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK, SUPPORTING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND A DECENT CHANCE OF
A DRY STRETCH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE AND COLD
FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK.
KLUBER
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY AVIATION MESSAGES FOR THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD:
- SPOTTY SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AFTER 00Z, AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
- SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED AFTER 06Z, HIGHEST COVERAGE OF TSRA AROUND AND
SOUTH OF ORD. IFR VIS POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST DOWNPOURS.
- LINGERING MVFR CIGS AND VCSH TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE IMPROVEMENT
MIDDAY.
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF MDW AND HEADED TO GYY
PRESENTLY. MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SPOTTY
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AND UP TO 10
KNOTS. FEW/SCT CIGS 1500 TO 2000 FT AGL WILL LINGER, BUT TRENDS ARE
FOR MORE VFR.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR OMAHA, NEBRASKA IS CONTINUING TO TRACK
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MORE COHESIVE AREA OF SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD OF THE LOW NEAR KDVN AND THE QUAD CITIES IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SHOWER COVERAGE AFTER 00Z OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL DRIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS, WITH
A CHANCE FOR CIGS DOWN TO IFR LEVELS. AS THE LOW MOVES IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT, THERE IS A THREAT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVIER RAIN RATES,
LOWER CIGS, GUSTIER WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND TSRA THROUGH DAYBREAK
TOMORROW.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF CHICAGO AROUND 15Z TOMORROW,
TAKING THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH IT. LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND
THE LOW ARE POSSIBLE INTO MIDDAY WITH MVFR CIGS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED, THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME SOUTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY
AFTER 18Z.
DK
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-
ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039-ILZ103-ILZ104-
ILZ105-ILZ106-ILZ107-ILZ108.
IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT /11 PM EDT/ THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING FOR INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019.
LM...NONE.
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