082
FXUS63 KLOT 231824
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
124 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
TEMPERATURES TURN MORE SEASONABLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIRAL OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WHICH HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS, THERE HAVE BEEN SOME ISOLATED
POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWERS IN OH AND IN. WHILE A
STRAY SPRINKLE CANNOT BE FULLY RULED OUT IN OUR NORTHWEST IN OR
FAR EASTERN IL COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON (~10% CHANCE), THE DRIER
LOW-LEVELS LOCALLY SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS DRY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE MID-60S THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
COOLING INTO THE LOW TO MID-50S OVERNIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT AND PUSH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST REGIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUD COVER (ESPECIALLY IN OUR
EASTERN CWA). TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
AVERAGE WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 50S DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AND
LINGERING CLOUD COVER. THAT SAID, THERE REMAINS A SIGNAL FOR A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TO DRIFT INTO THE RIDGE ON SATURDAY. WHILE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH THIS
WAVE, THE DRIER MID-LEVELS FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND
NORTHWEST IN SHOULD KEEP THESE SHOWERS NEAR AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL HAVE SOME 15- 20%
POPS NEAR AND WEST OF I-39 LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BUT THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE NBM BEING OVERDONE WITH MOISTURE.
SUSPECT THESE POPS WILL BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED IN FUTURE FORECAST
UPDATES SO PLAN ON A DRY FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
THE NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN IS NOT FORECAST TO OCCUR
SOMETIME NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION. PRIOR TO THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL, TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REBOUND TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S.
YACK
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THERE WILL
BE OCCASIONAL BREAKS, THIS CLOUDINESS WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN A
BKN VFR DECK AT THE TERMINALS. THERE ARE POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER BKN VFR DECK AND THERE COULD BE
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. FOR
NOW, JUST INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS FOR THE FIRST 4 HOURS
OF THE TAF, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL TEMPOS OR EVEN A
PERIOD OF PREVAILING MVFR MAY BE NEEDED WITH LATER UPDATES.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE AT THE TERMINALS. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPORADIC
GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE A BIT AFTER
SUNSET.
- IZZI
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ILZ006.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ILZ103-ILZ104.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE IL
NEARSHORE WATERS.
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