764
FXUS63 KLOT 232323
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
623 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
TEMPERATURES TURN MORE SEASONABLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIRAL OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WHICH HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS, THERE HAVE BEEN SOME ISOLATED
POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWERS IN OH AND IN. WHILE A
STRAY SPRINKLE CANNOT BE FULLY RULED OUT IN OUR NORTHWEST IN OR
FAR EASTERN IL COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON (~10% CHANCE), THE DRIER
LOW-LEVELS LOCALLY SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS DRY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE MID-60S THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
COOLING INTO THE LOW TO MID-50S OVERNIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT AND PUSH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST REGIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUD COVER (ESPECIALLY IN OUR
EASTERN CWA). TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
AVERAGE WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 50S DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AND
LINGERING CLOUD COVER. THAT SAID, THERE REMAINS A SIGNAL FOR A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TO DRIFT INTO THE RIDGE ON SATURDAY. WHILE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH THIS
WAVE, THE DRIER MID-LEVELS FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND
NORTHWEST IN SHOULD KEEP THESE SHOWERS NEAR AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL HAVE SOME 15- 20%
POPS NEAR AND WEST OF I-39 LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BUT THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE NBM BEING OVERDONE WITH MOISTURE.
SUSPECT THESE POPS WILL BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED IN FUTURE FORECAST
UPDATES SO PLAN ON A DRY FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
THE NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN IS NOT FORECAST TO OCCUR
SOMETIME NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION. PRIOR TO THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL, TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REBOUND TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S.
YACK
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY. A POCKET OF HIGH-MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS
WAY WESTWARD ACROSS THE CHICAGO-AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. BASED
ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS, CIGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR THROUGH
00-02Z. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
MAY PUSH WEST LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO
FOR THIS AT GYY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE LOWER CIGS AT MDW/ORD
IS TOO LOW FOR A MENTION AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT INTERMITTENT -DZ OR SPRINKLES AT TIMES AS WELL,
BUT MAINLY INVOF GYY AND POINT SOUTH.
STRATUS MAY ERODE A BIT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, BUT
ADDITIONAL HIGH- MVFR/VFR CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON. EAST-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CARLAW
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ILZ006.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ILZ103-ILZ104.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE IL
NEARSHORE WATERS.
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