493
FXUS66 KLOX 150409
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
809 PM PST TUE JAN 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
14/719 PM.
MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH A DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
WINDS, VERY LOW HUMIDITIES, AND A LACK OF RAINFALL. COLD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN WIND PROTECTED AREAS FOR THE NEXT
FEW MORNINGS. A COOLING TREND WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES IS EXPECTED
BEGINNING THURSDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)
14/216 PM.
WINDS TODAY DIDN'T QUITE MEET UP WITH EXPECTATIONS BUT THAT WAS A
GOOD THING. OVERALL WINDS HOVERED IN THE 20-40 MPH RANGE TODAY
WITH SOME ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 60 IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
THOSE WERE ALL IN THE STANDARD SANTA ANA CORRIDOR FROM ACTON TO
OXNARD.
GOING FORWARD MODELS DO SHOW A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT STILL WELL BELOW THE STRONGEST WINDS OF
EARLY LAST WEEK AND CERTAINLY NO MOUNTAIN WAVES EXPECTED. HIGH
WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH 3 PM
WEDNESDAY WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED 60MPH GUSTS IN THE USUAL
FAVORED MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO FAVOR MORE
OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WITH THIS EVENT, WINDS IN THE PALISADES
FIRE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE OF WIND
FORECAST. WITH WEAKENING COLD ADVECTION ALOFT TOMORROW
TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE SHOULD WARM AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES, BUT
MORE SO ACROSS COASTAL LA/VENTURA COUNTIES WHERE HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S ARE POSSIBLE.
LIGHTER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA GETS ITS FIRST
TASTE OF A SEA BREEZE IN OVER A WEEK. COULD STILL SEE SOME WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN THE MORNING BEFORE SHUTTING DOWN BY
NOON. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER INLAND BUT THE RETURN TO
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING COOLING TO COASTAL AREAS. THEN 3-6
DEGREES OF COOLING FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS RETURNING TO COASTAL AREAS.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
14/224 PM.
BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGHS 4-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL,
ESPECIALLY FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG EXPECTED FOR COAST AND SOME VALLEYS WITH LATE OR
POSSIBLY NO CLEARING AT SOME BEACHES.
ON MONDAY A RATHER STRONG UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL BEGIN A SHIFT BACK TO OFFSHORE FLOW THAT LIKELY
WILL PEAK MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LATEST ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE
FAVORING A MODERATE WIND EVENT WITH A 30-40% OF A STRONG EVENT,
BUT VERY LOW CHANCE OF A MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT.
AVIATION
15/0333Z.
AT 00Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR INVERSION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND GROUP
CHANGES MAY BE OFF BY +/- 3 HOURS. AREAS OF LLWS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG UDDF AND TURBULENCE, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND MTNS. WINDS MAY BE ERRATIC AT TIMES,
CHANGING QUICKLY BETWEEN GUSTY AND LIGHT.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF AN
EAST WIND COMPONENT REACHING 8 KT BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- 10 KTS AND WIND GROUP
CHANGES MAY BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS. LLWS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TURBULENCE AND UDDF
WILL ALSO AFFECT THE TERMINAL DURING THE PERIOD.
MARINE
14/218 PM.
IN THE OUTER WATERS, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL E-NE WINDS
WILL PERSIST IN THE SOUTHERN ZONE (PZZ676) THRU WED AFTERNOON,
WITH A LULL LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LOCAL GALE
FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE (30-40% CHANCE) LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED IN
PZZ676. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR SCA WINDS TO CONTINUE WED
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURS AFTERNOON, BUT THEY MAY BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE ZONE. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF SCA
LEVEL NW WINDS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION.
IN THE INNER WATERS N OF PT. SAL, EXCEPT FOR A 20% CHANCE OF SCA
LEVEL NE WINDS NEARSHORE DURING THE MORNING HOURS WED, SCA LEVEL
CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED THRU SAT NIGHT.
IN THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, NEARSHORE WINDS HAVE TRENDED
LIGHTER, THUS THE GALE WARNING WAS DELAYED AND A SCA IS NOW IN
EFFECT BEFORE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REESTABLISH (70%
CHANCE) LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU EARLY WED AFTERNOON FROM
VENTURA TO EASTERN SANTA CRUZ ISLAND SOUTHWARD. SCA LEVEL E TO NE
WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO THURS AFTERNOON (60-70% CHANCE),
POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY THURS MORNING ACROSS THE
CHANNEL. THEN BENIGN CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU SAT NIGHT.
IN THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS, THE GALE WARNING WAS DELAYED DUE TO
WINDS COMING IN MUCH LOWER THAN EXPECTED, AND A SCA IS NOW IN
EFFECT BEFORE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REESTABLISH (60%
CHANCE) LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU NOON WED. THESE WINDS WILL
BE MOSTLY FROM MALIBU TO POINT MUGU AND OUT TO ANACAPA ISLAND.
THEN, SCA LEVEL NE WINDS MAY PERIODICALLY CONTINUE INTO THURS
MORNING IN THE SAME AREA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS HAVE ALSO TRENDED
DOWN. HOWEVER, SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL LIKELY (50% CHANCE)
THROUGH THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL AND OUT TO AVALON AND TWO HARBORS
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR BRIEF GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 10% DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. BENIGN CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THRU FRI.
BEACHES
14/133 PM.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS HAVE
MADE IT TO THE REGION, CREATING POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
NEARSHORE AND THROUGH THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL. ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE
OVERALL TRENDED LIGHTER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED, NE TO E WINDS
MAY CREATE LARGE BREAKING WAVES TO AVALON AND TWO HARBORS LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING, POTENTIALLY CREATING
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9
AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 38-343-346>348-357. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 88-354-355-358-362-369>380. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 344-381>383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
288-345-352>358-362-369>374-376-377-380. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THURSDAY FOR ZONES
375-378-379. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON PST WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONE 655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...PHILLIPS/LEWIS
MARINE...DB/LEWIS
BEACHES...LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...MW/SMITH
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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