567
FXUS66 KLOX 152215
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
215 PM PST WED JAN 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
15/130 PM.
LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE ONSHORE FLOW ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHER
HUMIDITIES. ANOTHER SANTA ANA WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. MUCH BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
15/158 PM.
DAY 9 OF THIS LENGTHY OFFSHORE WIND EVENT IS GOING ALONG AS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LINGERING ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. THOSE WINDS ARE STARTING TO WEAKEN NOW AS
THE GRADIENT TABLE SHOWS ONSHORE TRENDS DEVELOPING. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
TO GENERATE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON A SOLID ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE ARRIVING ALONG THE
COAST AND WORKING ITS WAY INLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY,
FINALLY BRINGING THIS LONG OFFSHORE STRETCH TO AN END.
FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
AS THE COOL ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WILL PREVAIL. IN ADDITION
MODELS ARE INDICATING A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER, AROUND 3000 FEET
OR POSSIBLY HIGHER, DEVELOPING FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A
FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MORNING. GIVEN THE LOW SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR IT'S
POSSIBLE THIS STRATUS LAYER COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOWERING INVERSION SATURDAY AS WELL
AS RATHER STRONG OFFSHORE TREND SO IF THIS PERSISTS LOW CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD CLEAR SOONER (OR MAY NOT FORM AT ALL). HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
15/213 PM.
ASIDE FROM THE MARINE LAYER UNCERTAINTY THIS WEEKEND, THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE QUITE BENIGN. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LIGHT
OFFSHORE TREND AGAIN SUNDAY, THOUGH NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
WINDS. TEMPERATURES (DAY AND NIGHT) WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL, THOUGH A STRATUS LAYER WOULD RESULT IN WARMER
NIGHTS.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN INCREASING NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
ARE INDICATING A RETURN OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND SANTA ANA WINDS,
ESPECIALLY LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THOSE SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN
BOUNCING AROUND A BIT SO CONFIDENCE IN STRENGTH AND TIMING IS
STILL ON THE LOWER SIDE. HOWEVER, TODAY'S 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES
DEFINITELY TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE WINDS. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH SOME
MODIFICATION OF THAT IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST IF
OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP. THIS EVENT COULD BE EVEN DRIER THAN THE
LAST COUPLE OF SANTA ANAS AS PW'S ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR EVEN
BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH.
AVIATION
15/1744Z.
AT 17Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER. THERE WAS A SURFACED
BASED INVERSION WITH A TOP AT 800 FT AND A TEMPERATURE OF 16 C.
OVERALL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. WIND SHIFT TIMING MAY
BE OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS AND WIND SPEEDS COULD BE OFF BY UP TO 10
KT. AREAS OF LLWS AND TURBULENCE WITH MDT TO LOCALLY STRONG UDDF
IS POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON (ESP NEAR FOOTHILLS AND MTNS).
WINDS COULD BE ERRATIC AT TIMES. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDS TO
DOMINATE THE FCST PD.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF AN
EAST WIND COMPONENT REACHING 8 KT BETWEEN 06Z AND 16Z.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AT
AIRFIELD. WIND SPEED MAY BE OFF BY 5-10 KT THRU 06Z. LLWS IS
POSSIBLE TO LIKELY THRU EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG TURBULENCE AND UDDF NEAR THE AIRPORT.
MARINE
15/1234 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN PT. CONCEPTION AND AROUND THE
CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THERE IS A 30-40%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AROUND THE CHANNEL ISLANDS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVE INTO EARLY SAT MORNING (PZZ673/676). OTHERWISE,
GENERALLY EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU
SATURDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NO OF PT SAL, SCA CONDS ARE NOT LIKELY THRU
SUN NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10%) OF LOCALIZED NEARSHORE SCA
LEVEL GUSTS WED EVE THRU EARLY THU MORNING.
IN THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING, WITH A 80-90% CHANCE OF
SCA LEVEL WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTION OF PZZ650 THRU
THU MORNING. THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS.
OTHERWISE, SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED THRU SUN NIGHT.
FOR THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS (PZZ655), SCA LEVEL WINDS WILL
LIKELY STAY CONFINED TO THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ZONE
EXTENDING OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND THIS EVENING THRU THU MORNING.
OTHERWISE, SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED THRU SUN NIGHT.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 88-354-355-358-362-369>380. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 288-345-352>358-362-369>374-376-377-380. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THURSDAY FOR ZONES
375-378-379. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...MW
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