021
FXUS66 KLOX 182238
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
238 PM PST SAT JAN 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
18/234 PM.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN SUNDAY, WITH LOCAL NORTHEAST BREEZES,
LESS MORNING LOW CLOUDS, AND A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING. MOSTLY
CLEAR AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY, THEN SANTA ANA WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. A
MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WIND EVENT WILL LIKELY AFFECT
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH A WARMING TREND
LATER NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW TO VERY LOW ALL MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN WIND
SHELTERED AREAS EACH NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)
18/233 PM.
HIGH WIND WATCH ISSUED FOR MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR MOST OF VENTURA COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY
WE ARE IN THE LONG ADVERTISED, ALBEIT BRIEF BREAK FROM OFFSHORE
WIND AND HIGH FIRE DANGER THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. NIGHT TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HUG SOME OF THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE TOWARDS A STRONG SANTA ANA WIND
EVENT (70 PERCENT CHANCE) PEAKING IN STRENGTH MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS OF 60-80 MPH IN SANTA ANA WIND PRONE MOUNTAINS WITH
PEAK GUSTS OF 45-65 MPH FOR PRONE VALLEYS AND COASTS. THERE IS A
30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WIND SPEEDS PEAK 10-20 MPH FOR THESE AREAS.
A VERY STRONG 1045-1050 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY
BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND LIKELY SUPPORT STRONG OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS (-8 TO -10 LOS ANGELES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TO DAGGET)
AND VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. HISTORICALLY, THIS PATTERN HAS
SUPPORTED WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVEN INTO SOME COASTAL AREAS
(MOST NOTABLY WESTERN MALIBU TO THE OXNARD PLAIN) AND SOME OF OUR
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS ALREADY SUPPORTING THIS POTENTIAL.
THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY,
WHICH COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS THAN ADVERTISED,
ESPECIALLY FOR FOOTHILL AND ELEVATED VALLEY COMMUNITIES. GIVEN OUR
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND, WE HAVE ISSUED
A HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE NPWLOX FOR DETAILS). IN ADDITION TO THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND, EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME (SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS (RFWLOX)
FOR DETAILS).
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
18/233 PM.
WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING CONTINUED
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOCUSED ACROSS LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER A COOLISH START
TO THE WEEK, A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND LESS IN THE WAY OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S
FOR MANY COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS.
LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE NEXT WEEKEND WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AND MAINLY LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW SNOW LEVELS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM SHOULD THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH DEEPEN
ENOUGH TO PASS NEAR OUR REGION, WHICH MAY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL. THERE IS ALSO A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT THE STORM PASSES FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST FOR NO RAIN ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION. EITHER WAY A COOL DOWN IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND
WITH BREEZY WINDS FOCUSED ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
AVIATION
18/1941Z.
AT 18Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 2900 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION WAS 4400 FT DEEP WITH A TEMP OF 10 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DESERT TAFS, MODERATE CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER TAFS.
TIMING OF FLIGHT CAT CHANGES MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS WITH MINIMUM
FLIGHT CATS OFF BY +/- 1.
THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF NO CIGS AT KSBP, AND IF THERE IS, 40%
CHANCE OF VLIFR-IFR CONDS 05Z-18Z SUN. THERE IS A 25% CHANCE OF
IFR CONDS AT KSBA 12Z-19Z. FOR KBUR AND KVNY, THERE IS A 20%
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS BETWEEN 12Z-17Z SUN.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CAT CHANGES
MAY BE OFF BY UP TO +/- 2 HOURS. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF
BKN/OVC0005-010 CONDS FROM 08Z TO 18Z SUN. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
ANY EAST WIND COMPONENT REMAINS BELOW 8 KT THRU THE FCST PD.
KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE
OF ~BKN/OVC015-025 12Z-17Z SUN.
MARINE
18/149 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS ARE
LIKELY (70% CHANCE) SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE THRU MONDAY MORNING.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORED FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND WHICH INCLUDES THE WATERS AROUND AND TO THE WEST OF
THE CHANNEL ISLANDS (PZZ676/673). THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE OF
GALE FORCE LEVEL NE WINDS FOR THE WATERS AROUND AND TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS (PZZ676) LATE MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE, SUB-ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU MONDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF PT SAL (PZZ645), THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE JUST OFFSHORE
OF POINT SAN LUIS. OTHERWISE, SUB-ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THRU MONDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS FOR FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO LATE NIGHT. FROM
VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA AND OUT PAST THE CHANNEL ISLANDS, THERE IS
A 60-70% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE E/NE WIND GUSTS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. FOR PORT HUENEME TO MALIBU,
THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FROM THE ORANGE COUNTY SHORES THROUGH THE
SAN PEDRO CHANNEL, THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH A 60-70%
POTENTIAL OF 25-30 KT WINDS REACHING AVALON HARBOR. STEEP, CHOPPY
SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FOR ZONES
88-354-355-358-362-369-371-372-374>380. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM PST
TUESDAY FOR ZONES 288-354-355-358-362-369>380-548. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 288-354-355-358-362-369>380. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR ZONES 650-655-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM PST
MONDAY FOR ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MUNROE
AVIATION...LUND
MARINE...LUND
SYNOPSIS...DB/RM
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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