322
FSUS46 KLOX 102237
QPSLOX
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
225 PM PST MON FEB 10 2025
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN INCHES ARE PROVIDED IN 3-HOUR
INCREMENTS UNTIL 0400 FOLLOWED BY 6-HOUR INCREMENTS UNTIL 1600.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COVER UP TO 1600 ON DAY 1 ONLY.
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN ZERO BUT LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH ARE SHOWN AS LGT.
THE DISCUSSION COVERS THE PERIOD FROM: MON FEB 10 2025 THROUGH SUN FEB 16 2025.
16-19 19-22 22-01 01-04 | 04-10 10-16
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...
LSRC1:CAMBRIA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0
SMRC1:SANTA MARGARITA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0
NIPC1:LOPEZ LAKE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0
1-HR RATES: COASTS/VALLEYS FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS
EXPECTED PEAK (IN/HR): 0.00 0.00
PROBABILITY 0.50+ IN/HR: 0% 0%
PROBABILITY 1.00+ IN/HR: 0% 0%
PEAK RATES EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN: N/A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: 0%
16-19 19-22 22-01 01-04 | 04-10 10-16
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...
SIYC1:SANTA MARIA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0
SBTC1:SANTA BARBARA POTRERO 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0
GBRC1:GIBRALTAR DAM 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0
SMCC1:SAN MARCOS PASS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0
SBFC1:SANTA BARBARA CITY 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0
1-HR RATES: COASTS/VALLEYS FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS
EXPECTED PEAK (IN/HR): 0.00 0.00
PROBABILITY 0.50+ IN/HR: 0% 0%
PROBABILITY 1.00+ IN/HR: 0% 0%
PEAK RATES EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN: N/A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: 0%
16-19 19-22 22-01 01-04 | 04-10 10-16
VENTURA COUNTY...
FGWC1:FAGAN CANYON 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0
HRCC1:HOPPER CANYON 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0
MTDC1:MATILIJA DAM 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0
VTUC1:VENTURA CITY 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0
MORC1:MOORPARK 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0
CRXC1:CIRCLE X RANCH 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0
1-HR RATES: COASTS/VALLEYS FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS
EXPECTED PEAK (IN/HR): 0.00 0.00
PROBABILITY 0.50+ IN/HR: 0% 0%
PROBABILITY 1.00+ IN/HR: 0% 0%
PEAK RATES EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN: N/A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: 0%
16-19 19-22 22-01 01-04 | 04-10 10-16
LOS ANGELES COUNTY...
WFKC1:WEST FORK HELIPORT 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0
BDDC1:BIG DALTON DAM 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0
PCDC1:PACOIMA DAM 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0
FLTC1:LA CANADA FLINTRIDGE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0
SAUC1:SAUGUS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0
CQT:DOWNTOWN LA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0
MLUC1:MALIBU BIG ROCK MESA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0
1-HR RATES: COASTS/VALLEYS FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS
EXPECTED PEAK (IN/HR): 0.00 0.00
PROBABILITY 0.50+ IN/HR: 0% 0%
PROBABILITY 1.00+ IN/HR: 0% 0%
PEAK RATES EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN: N/A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: 0%
DISCUSSION:
WE NOW HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A MODERATE TO STRONG
STORM WITH A WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER COMING ALONG FOR THE RIDE. WE
HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL RECENT BURN SCARS OF
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR POTENTIALLY LIFE
THREATENING AND DAMAGING FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN AND NEAR THE
EATON, PALISADES/FRANKLIN, AND BRIDGE BURN SCARS. THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY THROUGH 4 AM FRIDAY, EXCEPT
FROM 10 AM THURSDAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE LAKE BURN
SCAR IN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD IMPACTS ARE
LIKELY BEYOND THESE AREAS WITH ROADWAY AND URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH
ALMOST TWICE THESE TOTALS FOR PORTIONS OF SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY (3
TO 5 INCHES COASTS AND 6 TO 10 INCHES SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS). HEAVY
WET SNOW IS A CONCERN AS LOW AS AROUND 6000 FEET AT TIMES WITH THE
HEAVIEST TOTALS (10-20+ INCHES) EXPECTED ABOVE 7500 FEET IN
ELEVATION. WE MAY EVENTUALLY ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
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