513
FSUS46 KLOX 112228
QPSLOX
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
225 PM PST TUE FEB 11 2025
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN INCHES ARE PROVIDED IN 3-HOUR
INCREMENTS UNTIL 0400 FOLLOWED BY 6-HOUR INCREMENTS UNTIL 1600.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COVER UP TO 1600 ON DAY 1 ONLY.
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN ZERO BUT LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH ARE SHOWN AS LGT.
THE DISCUSSION COVERS THE PERIOD FROM: TUE FEB 11 2025 THROUGH MON FEB 17 2025.
16-19 19-22 22-01 01-04 | 04-10 10-16
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...
LSRC1:CAMBRIA 0.0 0.0 LGT 0.2 | LGT LGT
SMRC1:SANTA MARGARITA 0.0 0.0 LGT 0.2 | LGT LGT
NIPC1:LOPEZ LAKE 0.0 0.0 LGT 0.1 | LGT LGT
1-HR RATES: COASTS/VALLEYS FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS
EXPECTED PEAK (IN/HR): 0.05-0.15 0.05-0.15
PROBABILITY 0.50+ IN/HR: <5% <5%
PROBABILITY 1.00+ IN/HR: <5% <5%
PEAK RATES EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN: 0200-0500
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: 0%
16-19 19-22 22-01 01-04 | 04-10 10-16
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...
SIYC1:SANTA MARIA 0.0 0.0 LGT LGT | LGT LGT
SBTC1:SANTA BARBARA POTRERO 0.0 0.0 LGT LGT | 0.2 LGT
GBRC1:GIBRALTAR DAM 0.0 0.0 LGT LGT | 0.3 LGT
SMCC1:SAN MARCOS PASS 0.0 0.0 LGT LGT | 0.2 LGT
SBFC1:SANTA BARBARA CITY 0.0 0.0 0.0 LGT | 0.2 LGT
1-HR RATES: COASTS/VALLEYS FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS
EXPECTED PEAK (IN/HR): 0.05-0.10 0.05-0.15
PROBABILITY 0.50+ IN/HR: <5% <5%
PROBABILITY 1.00+ IN/HR: <5% <5%
PEAK RATES EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN: 0200-1100
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: 0%
16-19 19-22 22-01 01-04 | 04-10 10-16
VENTURA COUNTY...
FGWC1:FAGAN CANYON 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | LGT LGT
HRCC1:HOPPER CANYON 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | LGT LGT
MTDC1:MATILIJA DAM 0.0 0.0 0.0 LGT | 0.1 LGT
VTUC1:VENTURA CITY 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.1 LGT
MORC1:MOORPARK 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | LGT LGT
CRXC1:CIRCLE X RANCH 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.1 LGT
1-HR RATES: COASTS/VALLEYS FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS
EXPECTED PEAK (IN/HR): 0.05-0.10 0.05-0.15
PROBABILITY 0.50+ IN/HR: <5% <5%
PROBABILITY 1.00+ IN/HR: <5% <5%
PEAK RATES EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN: 0600-1100
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: 0%
16-19 19-22 22-01 01-04 | 04-10 10-16
LOS ANGELES COUNTY...
WFKC1:WEST FORK HELIPORT 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | LGT LGT
BDDC1:BIG DALTON DAM 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | LGT LGT
PCDC1:PACOIMA DAM 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | LGT LGT
FLTC1:LA CANADA FLINTRIDGE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | LGT LGT
SAUC1:SAUGUS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | LGT LGT
CQT:DOWNTOWN LA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | LGT LGT
MLUC1:MALIBU BIG ROCK MESA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.1 LGT
1-HR RATES: COASTS/VALLEYS FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS
EXPECTED PEAK (IN/HR): 0.05-0.10 0.05-0.10
PROBABILITY 0.50+ IN/HR: <5% <5%
PROBABILITY 1.00+ IN/HR: <5% <5%
PEAK RATES EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN: 0800-1400
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: 0%
DISCUSSION:
A MODERATE TO STRONG STORM WITH AN ENTRAINED WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND EARLY
FRIDAY WITH A SMALL PRECURSOR SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR ALL RECENT BURN SCARS IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR MAJOR DEBRIS FLOWS EXISTS IN AND
NEAR THE EATON, PALISADES/FRANKLIN, AND BRIDGE BURN SCARS. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY THROUGH 4 AM FRIDAY,
EXCEPT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE
LAKE BURN SCAR IN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY.
AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD IMPACTS ARE LIKELY BEYOND THESE AREAS WITH
ROADWAY AND URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 3
INCHES WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH ALMOST TWICE THESE TOTALS FOR
PORTIONS OF SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY (3 TO 5 INCHES COASTS AND 6 TO 10
INCHES SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS).
HEAVY WET SNOW IS A CONCERN AS LOW AS AROUND 6000 FEET AT TIMES WITH
THE HEAVIEST TOTALS (10-20+ INCHES) EXPECTED ABOVE 7500 FEET IN
ELEVATION.
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