039
FSUS46 KLOX 121126
QPSLOX
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
316 AM PST WED FEB 12 2025
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN INCHES ARE PROVIDED IN 3-HOUR
INCREMENTS UNTIL 1600 FOLLOWED BY 6-HOUR INCREMENTS UNTIL 0400.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COVER UP TO 0400 ON DAY 1 ONLY.
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN ZERO BUT LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH ARE SHOWN AS LGT.
THE DISCUSSION COVERS THE PERIOD FROM: WED FEB 12 2025 THROUGH TUE FEB 18 2025.
04-07 07-10 10-13 13-16 | 16-22 22-04
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...
LSRC1:CAMBRIA LGT LGT 0.0 0.0 | LGT 0.6
SMRC1:SANTA MARGARITA LGT LGT 0.0 0.0 | LGT 0.6
NIPC1:LOPEZ LAKE LGT LGT LGT LGT | LGT 0.2
1-HR RATES: COASTS/VALLEYS FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS
EXPECTED PEAK (IN/HR): 0.25-0.35 0.25-0.45
PROBABILITY 0.50+ IN/HR: 25% 35%
PROBABILITY 1.00+ IN/HR: <5% <5%
PEAK RATES EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN: 0200-0500
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: 0%
04-07 07-10 10-13 13-16 | 16-22 22-04
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...
SIYC1:SANTA MARIA LGT LGT LGT LGT | LGT LGT
SBTC1:SANTA BARBARA POTRERO 0.1 LGT LGT LGT | LGT LGT
GBRC1:GIBRALTAR DAM LGT 0.2 LGT LGT | LGT 0.1
SMCC1:SAN MARCOS PASS 0.2 LGT LGT LGT | LGT 0.1
SBFC1:SANTA BARBARA CITY LGT 0.1 LGT LGT | LGT 0.1
1-HR RATES: COASTS/VALLEYS FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS
EXPECTED PEAK (IN/HR): 0.05-0.10 0.05-0.15
PROBABILITY 0.50+ IN/HR: 20% 25%
PROBABILITY 1.00+ IN/HR: <5% <5%
PEAK RATES EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN: 0300-0600
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: 0%
04-07 07-10 10-13 13-16 | 16-22 22-04
VENTURA COUNTY...
FGWC1:FAGAN CANYON LGT LGT LGT LGT | 0.0 LGT
HRCC1:HOPPER CANYON LGT LGT LGT LGT | LGT LGT
MTDC1:MATILIJA DAM LGT LGT LGT LGT | LGT LGT
VTUC1:VENTURA CITY LGT 0.1 LGT LGT | 0.0 LGT
MORC1:MOORPARK LGT LGT LGT LGT | 0.0 LGT
CRXC1:CIRCLE X RANCH LGT 0.1 0.1 LGT | LGT LGT
1-HR RATES: COASTS/VALLEYS FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS
EXPECTED PEAK (IN/HR): 0.05-0.10 0.05-0.15
PROBABILITY 0.50+ IN/HR: <5% <5%
PROBABILITY 1.00+ IN/HR: <5% <5%
PEAK RATES EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN: 0600-1100
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: 0%
04-07 07-10 10-13 13-16 | 16-22 22-04
LOS ANGELES COUNTY...
WFKC1:WEST FORK HELIPORT LGT LGT LGT LGT | LGT LGT
BDDC1:BIG DALTON DAM LGT LGT LGT LGT | LGT LGT
PCDC1:PACOIMA DAM LGT LGT LGT LGT | LGT LGT
FLTC1:LA CANADA FLINTRIDGE LGT LGT LGT LGT | LGT LGT
SAUC1:SAUGUS 0.0 LGT LGT 0.0 | 0.0 LGT
CQT:DOWNTOWN LA LGT LGT LGT LGT | 0.0 LGT
MLUC1:MALIBU BIG ROCK MESA LGT LGT LGT LGT | LGT LGT
1-HR RATES: COASTS/VALLEYS FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS
EXPECTED PEAK (IN/HR): 0.05-0.15 0.05-0.15
PROBABILITY 0.50+ IN/HR: <5% <5%
PROBABILITY 1.00+ IN/HR: <5% <5%
PEAK RATES EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN: 0800-1200
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: 0%
DISCUSSION:
A MODERATE TO STRONG STORM WITH AN ENTRAINED WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND EARLY
FRIDAY WITH A SMALL PRECURSOR SYSTEM TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
ALL RECENT BURN SCARS IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE
GREATEST CONCERN FOR MAJOR DEBRIS FLOWS EXISTS IN AND NEAR THE
EATON, PALISADES/FRANKLIN, AND BRIDGE BURN SCARS. THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY THROUGH 4 AM FRIDAY, EXCEPT
FROM 10 AM THURSDAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE LAKE BURN
SCAR IN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY.
AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD IMPACTS ARE LIKELY BEYOND THESE AREAS WITH
ROADWAY AND URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 3
INCHES WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH ALMOST TWICE THESE TOTALS FOR
PORTIONS OF SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY (3 TO 5 INCHES COASTS AND 6 TO 10
INCHES SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS).
SNOW LEVELS HAVE BEEN REVISED UPWARDS TO 8000 FT WHERE 10 TO 20
INCHES COULD FALL.
RORKE
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