410
FXUS66 KLOX 160548
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
948 PM PST SAT FEB 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
15/730 PM.
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE COMING WEEK. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY THIS WEEKEND AND
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)
15/813 PM.
THE JET STREAM HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL BRING A
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR INCREASING NORTHERLY GRADIENTS AND
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NAMELY THE
MOUNTAINS (ESPECIALLY THE I-5 CORRIDOR), SOUTHWEST SOUTHWEST
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY, AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. BY TUESDAY MORNING,
EXPECTING NORTHERLY LAX-BAKERSFIELD GRADIENT TO CLIMB TO AROUND
-5 TO -6 MB. A STEADY FLOW OF STORMS RIDING THE JET STREAM
THROUGH THE PAC NW WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE AREA
AT TIMES, BUT THE PATTERN STILL LOOKS DRY THIS WEEK AND LIKELY
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE, THEN COOL SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS WEST-EAST GRADIENTS TURN BACK ONSHORE. OVERALL, VERY
PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INLAND.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
15/128 PM.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS THURSDAY FROM A WEAK RIDGE TO AN
INSIDE SLIDER, BUT OVERALL VERY LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN TO SHIFT
GRADIENT BACK OFFSHORE AND WARM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. AT
THIS TIME MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SUPPORT FOR SANTA ANA WINDS
BUT GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. THEN ADDITIONAL
WARMING FRI/SAT WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINING AND HEIGHTS
RISING TO AROUND 580DAM.
AVIATION
16/0547Z.
AT 0436Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER. THERE WAS SURFACED
BASED INVERSION WITH A TOP AT 1500 FT AND A TEMPERATURE OF 16 C.
OVERALL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. THERE IS A 10% CHC
LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOP AT KPRB BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z SUN. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE FCST PD.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE FCST
PD. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE FCST
PD.
MARINE
15/733 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) CONDITIONS HAVE MOSTLY SUBSIDED, BUT SEAS
WILL BE LOCALLY NEAR 10 FEET AROUND POINT CONCEPTION, WHERE LOCAL
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS
A 30% FOR SCA LEVEL WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL
ZONE (PZZ673) AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY, WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO SCA
LEVELS WITH PERIODS OF SCA LEVEL SEAS. THERE MAY BE TIMES THAT
CONDS DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS, BUT SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ALSO A 20-40% CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS
MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH BETTER CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THERE IS A 50-60%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR A MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN
INNER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, AND A 60-70%
CHANCE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
BEACHES
15/118 PM.
A MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WITH A MODERATE PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
TO THE AREA MONDAY, POTENTIALLY BRINGING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO
THE WEST FACING BEACHES OF THE CENTRAL COAST AND VENTURA COUNTY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM PST
MONDAY FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM PST
TUESDAY FOR ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/GOMBERG
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...RAT/LEWIS
BEACHES...LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...MW/SMITH
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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