628
FXUS66 KLOX 161128
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
328 AM PST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
15/730 PM.
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE COMING WEEK. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY THIS WEEKEND AND
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)
16/235 AM.
OVERALL, 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS, A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS
TODAY/MONDAY, BUT RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY.
NEAR THE SURFACE, NORTHERLY OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EAST-WEST GRADIENTS EXHIBITING A
DIURNAL TREND.
FORECAST-WISE, THE SHORT TERM WILL BE RATHER QUIET. VARYING AMOUNT
OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY,
RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS FOR ANY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL COAST, LA COAST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SLO/SBA
COUNTIES TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE
MARINE INVERSION WOULD BE SHALLOW, THERE COULD BE SOME DENSE FOG
ISSUES WHEREVER LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP.
AS FOR WINDS, THE INCREASING NORTHERLY OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL
GENERATE SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE
AND THE I-5 CORRIDOR. LOOKING AT HREF AND NBM, THERE'S A 60-70%
CHANCE OF ADVISORY-LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS (GUSTS 35-50 MPH) IN
THESE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, NO
SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WITH WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS THIS MORNING,
TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE SHORT TERM WITH COASTAL AND
COASTAL VALLEY AREAS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WILL EXPECT SOME COOLING WITH MOST AREAS
DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID-FEBRUARY.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
16/235 AM.
FOR THE EXTENDED, 00Z MODELS HAVE THE SAME GENERAL SYNOPTIC IDEA.
AT UPPER LEVELS, RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE WEST COAST, SETTING UP
AN INSIDE SLIDER PATTERN AS TROUGHS DROP DOWN INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. NEAR THE SURFACE, THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN VARYING
AMOUNTS OF NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER IN
THE DETAILS OF THE OVERALL PATTERN WHICH RESULT IN NOTICEABLY
DIFFERENT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY OFFSHORE WINDS.
FORECAST-WISE, MAIN THING TO WATCH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR OFFSHORE WINDS. BASED ON RESPECTIVE PATTERNS,
THE GFS LOOKS TO BE MORE BULLISH WITH OFFSHORE WINDS THAN THE
ECMWF. LOOKING AT THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES, THE MODELS ARE MUCH
CLOSER IN THOUGHT, INDICATING ABOUT A 50-70% CHANCE OF MODERATE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ON THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY WITH THE RECENT RAIN,
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL, NO MATTER THE STRENGTH OF
THE OFFSHORE WINDS.
OTHER THAN THE WINDS, NO MAJOR ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW, MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG WILL BE A
NON-ISSUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, LEAVING SKIES IN THE MOSTLY CLEAR
CATEGORY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WILL EXPECT MINOR DAY-TO-DAY
FLUCTUATIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT SEVERAL DEGREES OF
WARMING FOR ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION
16/1126Z.
AT 0734Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER. THERE WAS SURFACED
BASED INVERSION WITH A TOP AT 1300 FT AND A TEMPERATURE OF 17 C.
OVERALL, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. THERE IS
A 30-40% CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS AT KSBP BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MON.
SIMILAR CHANCES THAT MVFR CONDS DO NOT ARRIVE AT KSMX BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z MON. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE MVFR CONDS DEVELOP AT KLGB
AFTER 09Z MON. SIMILAR CHANCES AT KPRB FOR SAME TIME PERIOD.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.
KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS
EXPECTED THRU 12Z MON. FROM 12Z TO 18Z MON, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE
MVFR CONDS (BKN/OVC015-025) DO NOT DEVELOP. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST
WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE FCST PD.
MARINE
16/232 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL
WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TO LIKELY AROUND POINT CONCEPTION AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PZZ676 THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY, WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
WIDESPREAD WITH PERIODS OF SCA LEVEL SEAS. THERE MAY BE TIMES THAT
CONDS DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS, BUT SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE
WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH BETTER CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THERE IS A
50-60% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVE HOURS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WATERS NEAR PORT SAN
LUIS. FOLLOWED BY MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND INCREASING CHANCES
TO 60% ON WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MOST AREAS
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE SBA
CHANNEL WILL BE THE EXCEPTION. THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE FOR SCA
LEVEL WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE THRU MON MORNING. FOLLOWED BY A
60-70% CHANCE MON AFTERNOON THRU LATE MON NIGHT.
BEACHES
15/118 PM.
A MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WITH A MODERATE PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
TO THE AREA MONDAY, POTENTIALLY BRINGING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO
THE WEST FACING BEACHES OF THE CENTRAL COAST AND VENTURA COUNTY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PST MONDAY FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PST TUESDAY FOR ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK
BEACHES...LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...MW/SMITH
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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