220
FXUS66 KLOX 161726
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
926 AM PST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
16/823 AM.
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CA
THROUGH THIS WEEK. PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
PREVAIL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
DURING THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)
16/820 AM.
***UPDATE***
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER SW CA TODAY, WITH
VARYING AMOUNTS OF HI CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. STILL, THERE
SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE
AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE OFFSHORE TO THE N AND E THIS
MORNING BUT SHOULD TURN ONSHORE ESPECIALLY TO THE E THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MORNING OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL HELP TEMPS TO WARM
TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY, WITH THE WARMER INLAND COAST
AND VLYS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S BEFORE ONSHORE BREEZES
DEVELOP. BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY N TO NE WINDS THIS MORNING,
ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES WHERE LOCAL GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH WERE NOTED, WILL TURN MORE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
OVERALL, 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS, A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS
TODAY/MONDAY, BUT RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY.
NEAR THE SURFACE, NORTHERLY OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EAST-WEST GRADIENTS EXHIBITING A
DIURNAL TREND.
FORECAST-WISE, THE SHORT TERM WILL BE RATHER QUIET. VARYING AMOUNT
OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY,
RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS FOR ANY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL COAST, LA COAST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SLO/SBA
COUNTIES TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE
MARINE INVERSION WOULD BE SHALLOW, THERE COULD BE SOME DENSE FOG
ISSUES WHEREVER LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP.
AS FOR WINDS, THE INCREASING NORTHERLY OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL
GENERATE SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE
AND THE I-5 CORRIDOR. LOOKING AT HREF AND NBM, THERE'S A 60-70%
CHANCE OF ADVISORY-LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS (GUSTS 35-50 MPH) IN
THESE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, NO
SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WITH WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS THIS MORNING,
TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE SHORT TERM WITH COASTAL AND
COASTAL VALLEY AREAS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WILL EXPECT SOME COOLING WITH MOST AREAS
DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID-FEBRUARY.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
16/235 AM.
FOR THE EXTENDED, 00Z MODELS HAVE THE SAME GENERAL SYNOPTIC IDEA.
AT UPPER LEVELS, RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE WEST COAST, SETTING UP
AN INSIDE SLIDER PATTERN AS TROUGHS DROP DOWN INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. NEAR THE SURFACE, THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN VARYING
AMOUNTS OF NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER IN
THE DETAILS OF THE OVERALL PATTERN WHICH RESULT IN NOTICEABLY
DIFFERENT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY OFFSHORE WINDS.
FORECAST-WISE, MAIN THING TO WATCH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR OFFSHORE WINDS. BASED ON RESPECTIVE PATTERNS,
THE GFS LOOKS TO BE MORE BULLISH WITH OFFSHORE WINDS THAN THE
ECMWF. LOOKING AT THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES, THE MODELS ARE MUCH
CLOSER IN THOUGHT, INDICATING ABOUT A 50-70% CHANCE OF MODERATE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ON THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY WITH THE RECENT RAIN,
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL, NO MATTER THE STRENGTH OF
THE OFFSHORE WINDS.
OTHER THAN THE WINDS, NO MAJOR ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW, MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG WILL BE A
NON-ISSUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, LEAVING SKIES IN THE MOSTLY CLEAR
CATEGORY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WILL EXPECT MINOR DAY-TO-DAY
FLUCTUATIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT SEVERAL DEGREES OF
WARMING FOR ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION
16/1724Z.
AT 1617Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS 500 FEET. THERE WAS
SURFACED BASED INVERSION WITH A TOP AT 2000 FT AND A TEMPERATURE
OF 17 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KSBA, KOXR, KCMA, KBUR, KVNY, KWJF,
AND KPMD. THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR IFR TO MVFR CIGS BETWEEN
10Z AND 18Z, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES AT KOXR AFTER 15Z.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPRB, KSMX, KSBP, KSMO,
KLAX, AND KLGB. LOW CONFIDENCE IN MINIMUM FLIGHT CAT AT ALL
SITES. THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE FOR VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL AT KSMX.
THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO ARRIVE AT KSBP
BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z. LIFR TO IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AT KSBP AND
KSMX IF CIGS ARRIVE. VLIFR TO LIFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AT KPRB. FOR
LA COUNTY COASTAL SITES, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR IFR CONDS,
ESPECIALLY AFTER 15Z. THERE IS ALSO A 20-40% CHANCE FOR VFR CONDS
TO PREVAIL, HIGHEST CHANCES AT KSMO AND LOWEST AT KLGB.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF, ESPECIALLY FROM 12Z THROUGH
20Z. VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z, THEN MVFR CONDS ARE LIKELY.
ARRIVAL CIGS MAY BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR
OVC007-010 CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 20Z. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE VFR
CONDS PREVAIL. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.
MARINE
16/810 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY, WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH
PERIODS OF SCA LEVEL SEAS. THERE MAY BE TIMES THAT CONDS DROP
BELOW SCA LEVELS, BUT SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY
NIGHT AND A 30-40% CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH MONDAY, THERE IS A 60-70%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LOWER CHANCES OF SCA CONDS TUESDAY, THEN A 50-70% CHANCE
WEDNESDAY. LOWER CHANCES THURSDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, THERE IS A 70-80%
CHANCE FOR SCA LEVEL WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WITH A
40-50% CHANCE OF WINDS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. OTHERWISE, CONDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THEN THERE IS A
60-70% CHANCE FOR SCA LEVEL WINDS IN THE SB CHANNEL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING, WITH A 20% CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE
WINDS.
BEACHES
16/758 AM.
A MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WITH A MODERATE PERIOD WILL
ARRIVE TO THE AREA MONDAY, BRINGING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST FACING BEACHES OF THE CENTRAL COAST (8 TO 12
FEET WITH LOCAL SETS TO 15 FEET) AND VENTURA COUNTY (6 TO 9
FEET).
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM PST
TUESDAY FOR ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 3 PM PST
TUESDAY FOR ZONE 354. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PST MONDAY FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM
PST MONDAY FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PST TUESDAY FOR ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...THOMPSON/SIRARD
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...LEWIS
BEACHES...LEWIS/BLACK
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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