924
FXUS66 KLOX 162155
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
155 PM PST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
16/154 PM.
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CA
THROUGH THIS WEEK, WITH EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND. SOME
COASTAL AND INTERIOR VALLEY LOW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING, OTHERWISE VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)
16/146 PM.
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER SW CA THRU THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HI CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
STILL, THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION
THRU THE AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE OFFSHORE TO THE N AND
E THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD TURN ONSHORE ESPECIALLY TO THE E THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MORNING OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HELPED TEMPS TO
WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ALREADY, WITH THE WARMER
INLAND COAST AND VLYS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES REACHING THE LOWER TO
MID 70S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO GUSTY SW TO NW WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TURN ONSHORE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE THRU CENTRAL AND NRN CA TONIGHT
INTO MON MORNING WITH H5 HEIGHTS LOWERING TO ABOUT 568-570 DAM
THRU MON AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE
E PAC MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER SW CA TUE
AFTERNOON AND TUE NIGHT, WITH H5 HEIGHTS INCREASING TO 576-577
DAM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL THEN MOVE INTO NRN AND CENTRAL CA ON
WED WITH LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS TO 570-574 DAM FROM N TO S BY LATE
WED AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY FAIR SKIES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT THROUGH
WED. HOWEVER, MARINE LAYER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOME
COASTAL AND VLY AREAS AND EVEN FAR INTERIOR AREAS OF SLO/SBA
COUNTY LATER TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP
AGAIN FOR PART OF THE L.A. COUNTY COAST MON NIGH INTO TUE MORNING.
AT THE SAME TIME, LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
EASTERN SLO COUNTY, THE CUYAMA VLY AND THE N MTN SLOPES FROM THE
SRN SAN JOAQUIN VLY THANKS TO NE FLOW INCREASING IN THOSE AREAS.
IN ADDITION, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ON WED ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BRING MORE CLOUDINESS MAINLY TO SLO COUNTY
THRU THE DAY ON WED.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TRENDS TO THE N AND E WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
OFFSHORE MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING ONSHORE AND
INCREASING ON WED. PERIODS OF GUSTY N TO NE WINDS, POSSIBLY TO LOW
END ADVISORY LEVELS, CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE MTNS AND
SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY DURING THE PERIOD, STRONGEST NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS.
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST ON MON AND TUE, EXCEPT FOR THE
INTERIOR VLYS OF SLO COUNTY WHICH SHOULD STAY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. ON WED, MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST SHOULD BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMEST DAY ON WED WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE
WARMEST INLAND COAST AND VLYS REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
16/150 PM.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC
DETERMINISTIC, WHILE THE MEAN ENSEMBLES WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT.
OVERALL, IT LOOKS LIKE A BROAD INSIDE SLIDER UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
MOVE INTO NRN CA WED NIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN THU. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE E THRU FRI AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OFF THE COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD THEN
MOVE INLAND OVER SRN CA SAT AND SUN.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MOST PART.
PERIODS OF GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY, BUT
PROBABLY STRONGEST THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING AS EC/GFS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE PRETTY STRONG OFFSHORE TO THE N AND
E. THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE OVER PORTIONS
OF SLO/SBA COUNTY, AND THE USUAL WIND-PRONE CORRIDORS OF VTU/L.A.
COUNTIES.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLEST ON THU, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AND INTERIOR AREAS, BUT THEN ALL AREAS WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY
BETWEEN FRI AND SUN. BY SUN, IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL BE AS MUCH
AS 10-15 DEG ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS, WITH THE WARMEST INLAND COASTAL
AREAS, VLYS AND LOWER MTNS REACHING THE 70S TO LOW 80S.
AVIATION
16/1724Z.
AT 1617Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS 500 FEET. THERE WAS
SURFACED BASED INVERSION WITH A TOP AT 2000 FT AND A TEMPERATURE
OF 17 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KSBA, KOXR, KCMA, KBUR, KVNY, KWJF,
AND KPMD. THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR IFR TO MVFR CIGS BETWEEN
10Z AND 18Z, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES AT KOXR AFTER 15Z.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPRB, KSMX, KSBP, KSMO,
KLAX, AND KLGB. LOW CONFIDENCE IN MINIMUM FLIGHT CAT AT ALL
SITES. THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE FOR VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL AT KSMX.
THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO ARRIVE AT KSBP
BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z. LIFR TO IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AT KSBP AND
KSMX IF CIGS ARRIVE. VLIFR TO LIFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AT KPRB. FOR
LA COUNTY COASTAL SITES, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR IFR CONDS,
ESPECIALLY AFTER 15Z. THERE IS ALSO A 20-40% CHANCE FOR VFR CONDS
TO PREVAIL, HIGHEST CHANCES AT KSMO AND LOWEST AT KLGB.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF, ESPECIALLY FROM 12Z THROUGH
20Z. VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z, THEN MVFR CONDS ARE LIKELY.
ARRIVAL CIGS MAY BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR
OVC007-010 CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 20Z. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE VFR
CONDS PREVAIL. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.
MARINE
16/132 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH LULLS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL ALSO REACH SCA LEVELS AT TIMES THIS WEEK, WITH
BEST CHANCES (60%) MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A 20-30%
CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND A 30-40% CHANCE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, THERE IS A 60-70% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND
AGAIN MONDAY. LOWER CHANCES OF SCA CONDS TUESDAY, THEN A 50-70%
CHANCE WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BE NEAR SCA LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN THURSDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, THERE IS A 70-80%
CHANCE FOR SCA LEVEL WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WITH A
40-50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL.
THEN THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE FOR SCA LEVEL WINDS IN THE SB
CHANNEL IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH A 20% CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE, SCA
CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT, WHERE THERE IS A
20% CHANCE OF NE TO E SCA LEVEL WINDS NEARSHORE FROM VENTURA TO
MALIBU AND OFF THE COAST OF ORANGE COUNTY.
BEACHES
16/758 AM.
A MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WITH A MODERATE PERIOD WILL
ARRIVE TO THE AREA MONDAY, BRINGING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST FACING BEACHES OF THE CENTRAL COAST (8 TO 12
FEET WITH LOCAL SETS TO 15 FEET) AND VENTURA COUNTY (6 TO 9
FEET).
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 9 PM PST
TUESDAY FOR ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 3 AM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR ZONE 354. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST MONDAY FOR ZONE
645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM
PST MONDAY FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...SIRARD
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...LEWIS
BEACHES...LEWIS/BLACK
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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