518
FXUS66 KLOX 170531
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
931 PM PST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
16/917 PM.
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CA
THROUGH THIS WEEK, WITH EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND. SOME
COASTAL AND INTERIOR VALLEY LOW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING, OTHERWISE VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)
16/930 PM.
***UPDATE***
HIGH CLOUDS FROM A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOUT 1000 MILES TO THE
SOUTHWEST HAVE BEEN STREAMING INTO THE AREA AND WE'LL CONTINUE TO
SEE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER, THE STORM
TRACK HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE PAC NW AND IT'S EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THERE FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THIS MONTH. SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS AT LEAST AND POSSIBLY LONGER. IN THE
MEAN TIME, VERY LOW IMPACT WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART. AS
MENTIONED BELOW SOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES, STRONGEST
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL BE BOUNCING AROUND A BIT THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS,
RESULTING IN SOME MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, BUT GENERALLY 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
PRESSURE GRADIENT TRENDS TO THE N AND E WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
OFFSHORE MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING ONSHORE AND
INCREASING ON WED. PERIODS OF GUSTY N TO NE WINDS, POSSIBLY TO LOW
END ADVISORY LEVELS, CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE MTNS AND
SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY DURING THE PERIOD, STRONGEST NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS.
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST ON MON AND TUE, EXCEPT FOR THE
INTERIOR VLYS OF SLO COUNTY WHICH SHOULD STAY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. ON WED, MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST SHOULD BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMEST DAY ON WED WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE
WARMEST INLAND COAST AND VLYS REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
16/150 PM.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC
DETERMINISTIC, WHILE THE MEAN ENSEMBLES WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT.
OVERALL, IT LOOKS LIKE A BROAD INSIDE SLIDER UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
MOVE INTO NRN CA WED NIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN THU. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE E THRU FRI AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OFF THE COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD THEN
MOVE INLAND OVER SRN CA SAT AND SUN.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MOST PART.
PERIODS OF GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY, BUT
PROBABLY STRONGEST THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING AS EC/GFS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE PRETTY STRONG OFFSHORE TO THE N AND
E. THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE OVER PORTIONS
OF SLO/SBA COUNTY, AND THE USUAL WIND-PRONE CORRIDORS OF VTU/L.A.
COUNTIES.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLEST ON THU, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AND INTERIOR AREAS, BUT THEN ALL AREAS WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY
BETWEEN FRI AND SUN. BY SUN, IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL BE AS MUCH
AS 10-15 DEG ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS, WITH THE WARMEST INLAND COASTAL
AREAS, VLYS AND LOWER MTNS REACHING THE 70S TO LOW 80S.
AVIATION
17/0025Z.
AT 2335Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS 820 FEET. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 2300 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR THE VALLEYS AND DESERT, EXCEPT FOR LOW
CONFIDENCE IN KPRB WHERE LOW CIGS AND VSBY ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE THE SITE REMAINS VFR OVERNIGHT.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
MINIMUM FLIGHT CAT AT ALL SITES. THERE IS A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CONDS REMAIN VFR AT KSMX AND ESPECIALLY KSBP. KSBA AND KCMA
HAVE A 20-30% CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CONDS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE OF IFR CONDS OVERNIGHT FOR KOXR AND THE LA COASTAL SITES.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF, ESPECIALLY FROM 12Z THROUGH
20Z. VFR CONDS EXPECTED UNTIL 10Z, BUT THE TIMING OF CIGS ARRIVAL
COULD BE OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF OVC007-010
CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z, AND A 30% CHANCE VFR CONDS PREVAIL. 20%
CHANCE OF AN EAST WIND COMPONENT UP TO 8 KNOTS.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF.
MARINE
16/132 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH LULLS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL ALSO REACH SCA LEVELS AT TIMES THIS WEEK, WITH
BEST CHANCES (60%) MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A 20-30%
CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND A 30-40% CHANCE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, THERE IS A 60-70% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND
AGAIN MONDAY. LOWER CHANCES OF SCA CONDS TUESDAY, THEN A 50-70%
CHANCE WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BE NEAR SCA LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN THURSDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, THERE IS A 70-80%
CHANCE FOR SCA LEVEL WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WITH A
40-50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL.
THEN THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE FOR SCA LEVEL WINDS IN THE SB
CHANNEL IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH A 20% CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE, SCA
CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT, WHERE THERE IS A
20% CHANCE OF NE TO E SCA LEVEL WINDS NEARSHORE FROM VENTURA TO
MALIBU AND OFF THE COAST OF ORANGE COUNTY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 9 PM PST
TUESDAY FOR ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 3 AM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR ZONE 354. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST MONDAY FOR ZONE
645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST MONDAY FOR ZONE
650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/SIRARD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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