776
FXUS66 KLOX 170610
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1010 PM PST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
16/917 PM.
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CA
THROUGH THIS WEEK, WITH EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND. SOME
COASTAL AND INTERIOR VALLEY LOW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING, OTHERWISE VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)
16/930 PM.
***UPDATE***
HIGH CLOUDS FROM A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOUT 1000 MILES TO THE
SOUTHWEST HAVE BEEN STREAMING INTO THE AREA AND WE'LL CONTINUE TO
SEE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER, THE STORM
TRACK HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE PAC NW AND IT'S EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THERE FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THIS MONTH. SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS AT LEAST AND POSSIBLY LONGER. IN THE
MEAN TIME, VERY LOW IMPACT WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART. AS
MENTIONED BELOW SOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES, STRONGEST
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL BE BOUNCING AROUND A BIT THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS,
RESULTING IN SOME MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, BUT GENERALLY 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
PRESSURE GRADIENT TRENDS TO THE N AND E WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
OFFSHORE MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING ONSHORE AND
INCREASING ON WED. PERIODS OF GUSTY N TO NE WINDS, POSSIBLY TO LOW
END ADVISORY LEVELS, CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE MTNS AND
SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY DURING THE PERIOD, STRONGEST NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS.
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST ON MON AND TUE, EXCEPT FOR THE
INTERIOR VLYS OF SLO COUNTY WHICH SHOULD STAY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. ON WED, MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST SHOULD BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMEST DAY ON WED WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE
WARMEST INLAND COAST AND VLYS REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
16/150 PM.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC
DETERMINISTIC, WHILE THE MEAN ENSEMBLES WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT.
OVERALL, IT LOOKS LIKE A BROAD INSIDE SLIDER UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
MOVE INTO NRN CA WED NIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN THU. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE E THRU FRI AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OFF THE COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD THEN
MOVE INLAND OVER SRN CA SAT AND SUN.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MOST PART.
PERIODS OF GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY, BUT
PROBABLY STRONGEST THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING AS EC/GFS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE PRETTY STRONG OFFSHORE TO THE N AND
E. THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE OVER PORTIONS
OF SLO/SBA COUNTY, AND THE USUAL WIND-PRONE CORRIDORS OF VTU/L.A.
COUNTIES.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLEST ON THU, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AND INTERIOR AREAS, BUT THEN ALL AREAS WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY
BETWEEN FRI AND SUN. BY SUN, IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL BE AS MUCH
AS 10-15 DEG ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS, WITH THE WARMEST INLAND COASTAL
AREAS, VLYS AND LOWER MTNS REACHING THE 70S TO LOW 80S.
AVIATION
17/0608Z.
AT 05Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER. THERE WAS A SURFACED
BASED INVERSION WITH A TOP AT 1500 FT AND A TEMPERATURE OF 18 C.
OVERALL, MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN DESERT AND VALLEY AIRFIELDS EXCEPT FOR KPRB - THERE
IS A 20% CHANCE OF VLIFR CONDS BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z MON. SIMILAR
CHANCES LOW CLOUDS/FOG FAIL TO MATERIALIZE. WIND GUSTS COULD BE
OFF 5-10 KTS AT KPMD AND KWJF, ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z MON.
LOWEST CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL AIRFIELDS, IN REGARDS TO MINIMUM
FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND ARRIVAL/DEPARTURE TIMES (+/- 2 HOURS).
THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR CONDS TO DEVELOP AT KSBP FROM
10Z TO 18Z MON. SIMILAR CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDS AT KSBA BETWEEN 08Z
AND 18Z MON. THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE FOR ARRIVAL OF MVFR CIGS AT
KSMO FROM 06Z TO 18Z MON.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF HIGH
IFR CONDS (BKN/OVC008) FROM 12Z TO 18Z MON. THERE IS A 10-20%
CHANCE CONDS REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY FEW-SCT COVERAGE THRU
AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME. THERE IS 30% CHANCE OF EAST WIND
COMPONENT REACHING 6-8 KTS FROM 06Z TO 12Z TUE.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.
MARINE
16/132 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH LULLS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL ALSO REACH SCA LEVELS AT TIMES THIS WEEK, WITH
BEST CHANCES (60%) MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A 20-30%
CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND A 30-40% CHANCE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, THERE IS A 60-70% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND
AGAIN MONDAY. LOWER CHANCES OF SCA CONDS TUESDAY, THEN A 50-70%
CHANCE WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BE NEAR SCA LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN THURSDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, THERE IS A 70-80%
CHANCE FOR SCA LEVEL WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WITH A
40-50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL.
THEN THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE FOR SCA LEVEL WINDS IN THE SB
CHANNEL IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH A 20% CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE, SCA
CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT, WHERE THERE IS A
20% CHANCE OF NE TO E SCA LEVEL WINDS NEARSHORE FROM VENTURA TO
MALIBU AND OFF THE COAST OF ORANGE COUNTY.
BEACHES
16/758 AM.
A MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WITH A MODERATE PERIOD WILL
ARRIVE TO THE AREA MONDAY, BRINGING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST FACING BEACHES OF THE CENTRAL COAST (8 TO 12
FEET WITH LOCAL SETS TO 15 FEET) AND VENTURA COUNTY (6 TO 9
FEET).
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 9 PM PST
TUESDAY FOR ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 3 AM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR ZONE 354. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST MONDAY FOR ZONE
645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST MONDAY FOR ZONE
650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/SIRARD
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...LEWIS
BEACHES...LEWIS/BLACK
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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