254
FXUS66 KLOX 171108
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
308 AM PST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
16/917 PM.
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CA
THROUGH THIS WEEK, WITH EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND. SOME
COASTAL AND INTERIOR VALLEY LOW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING, OTHERWISE VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)
17/307 AM.
OVERALL, 00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT UPPER LEVELS, WEAK RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE WEST
COAST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN WILL FLATTEN OUT ON WEDNESDAY AS
A LOW BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEAR THE
SURFACE, WEAK DIURNAL PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL PREVAIL, WEAKLY
OFFSHORE AT NIGHT AND WEAKLY ONSHORE DURING THE DAY.
FORECAST-WISE, NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. MAIN ISSUE TO WATCH WILL BE THE WINDS. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS INDICATE MODERATE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS DEVELOPING
DURING THE EVENING THROUGH MORNING HOURS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SO, THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EACH NIGHT/MORNING
ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR.
LOOKING AT HREF DATA, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS IN THESE AREAS. THE WIND POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY BY FUTURE SHIFTS.
OTHER THAN WINDS, THE FORECAST WILL BE VERY BENIGN. WITH VARYING
AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING OVERHEAD, SKY CONDITION WILL WAVES
BETWEEN MOSTLY CLEAR AND PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME
MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG WILL BE LIKELY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND POSSIBLY THE LA
COUNTY COAST. FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST IS DENSE, SO WILL ISSUE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 900 AM FOR SANTA YNEZ VALLEY AND THE
WESTERN COASTAL ZONES OF SBA COUNTY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WILL
ANTICIPATE MINOR FLUCTUATIONS FROM DAY-TO- DAY, BASED MAINLY ON
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. OVERALL, MOST AREAS WILL HAVE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
17/307 AM.
FOR THE EXTENDED, 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DECENT SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS, INSIDE SLIDER DROPS
INTO THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY/FRIDAY, THEN MOVES EASTWARD AS A
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY/SUNDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE, MODERATE
NORTHERLY OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND WEAKLY OFFSHORE EASTERLY
GRADIENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FORECAST-WISE, MAIN ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LOOKING AT THE LATEST ENSEMBLES FROM
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF, NEITHER MODEL IS TOO OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT
THE OFFSHORE WINDS. NORTHERLY WIND-PRONE AREAS LOOK TO HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE OF LOW END ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS THAN NORTHEASTERLY
WIND-PRONE AREAS. THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ON
THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SOME WIND PRODUCTS BEING
NEEDED.
FURTHER OUT INTO "FANTASY LAND," NEITHER THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
OR THEIR ENSEMBLES INDICATE ANY GREAT CHANCES FOR RAIN. SO,
THROUGH THE END OF FEBRUARY, DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.
AVIATION
17/0608Z.
AT 05Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER. THERE WAS A SURFACED
BASED INVERSION WITH A TOP AT 1500 FT AND A TEMPERATURE OF 18 C.
OVERALL, MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN DESERT AND VALLEY AIRFIELDS EXCEPT FOR KPRB - THERE
IS A 20% CHANCE OF VLIFR CONDS BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z MON. SIMILAR
CHANCES LOW CLOUDS/FOG FAIL TO MATERIALIZE. WIND GUSTS COULD BE
OFF 5-10 KTS AT KPMD AND KWJF, ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z MON.
LOWEST CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL AIRFIELDS, IN REGARDS TO MINIMUM
FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND ARRIVAL/DEPARTURE TIMES (+/- 2 HOURS).
THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR CONDS TO DEVELOP AT KSBP FROM
10Z TO 18Z MON. SIMILAR CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDS AT KSBA BETWEEN 08Z
AND 18Z MON. THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE FOR ARRIVAL OF MVFR CIGS AT
KSMO FROM 06Z TO 18Z MON.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF HIGH
IFR CONDS (BKN/OVC008) FROM 12Z TO 18Z MON. THERE IS A 10-20%
CHANCE CONDS REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY FEW-SCT COVERAGE THRU
AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME. THERE IS 30% CHANCE OF EAST WIND
COMPONENT REACHING 6-8 KTS FROM 06Z TO 12Z TUE.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.
MARINE
17/1253 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD AT TIMES SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH LULLS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING (ESPECIALLY FOR PZZ670). SEAS
WILL ALSO REACH SCA LEVELS AT TIMES THIS WEEK, WITH BEST CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE (80%) MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A
30-40% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE FOR THE
WATERS AROUND THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS DOWN TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND - INCLUDING WESTERN PORTIONS OF PZZ676. SIMILAR CHANCES FOR
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVE POSSIBLY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, THERE IS A 80-90% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL NW WINDS ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVE HOURS. FAIRLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCA WINDS ON TUESDAY.
FOLLOWED BY A 40% CHANCE FOR SCA LEVEL NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.
SEAS WILL BE NEAR SCA LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN THURSDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, THERE IS A 80-90%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL W TO NW WINDS MON AFTERNOON/EVE FOR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF SBA CHANNEL (PZZ650). FOLLOWED BY A MUCH LOWER CHANCE
(30%) TUESDAY, WITH INCREASING CHANCES (60-70%) DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVE HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE, SCA CONDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT, WHERE THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF
NE-E SCA LEVEL WINDS NEARSHORE ROUGHLY FROM VENTURA TO MALIBU.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST TUESDAY FOR ZONES
340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
ZONES 346>348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM
PST WEDNESDAY FOR ZONE 354. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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