560
FXUS66 KLOX 171741
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
941 AM PST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
16/917 PM.
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CA
THROUGH THIS WEEK, WITH EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND. SOME
COASTAL AND INTERIOR VALLEY LOW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING, OTHERWISE VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)
17/939 AM.
***UPDATE***
AREAS OF DENSE FOG AFFECTED PARTS OF THE CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA
YNEZ VLY THIS MORNING. THERE WERE ALSO LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG IN
THE SLO COUNTY INTERIOR VLYS AND SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN L.A. COUNTY COAST THIS MORNING. ANY LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE THRU LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH SOME HI CLOUDS PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL HI CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NW THRU THIS AFTERNOON FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES.
GUSTY N TO NE WINDS MAINLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WERE NOTED OVER
SW SBA COUNTY AND OVER PARTS OF THE SANTA LUCIA MTNS THIS MORNING.
THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME THRU EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
MAY INCREASE AGAIN BEFORE SUNSET, ESPECIALLY OVER SW SBA COUNTY.
OTHERWISE, WEAK FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME BREEZY TO GUSTY W TO
NW FOR MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, STRONGEST IN THE ANTELOPE VLY.
TEMPS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE WARMEST VLYS OF L.A./VTU
COUNTIES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S. HIGHS IN THE ANTELOPE
VLY SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
OVERALL, 00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT UPPER LEVELS, WEAK RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE WEST
COAST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN WILL FLATTEN OUT ON WEDNESDAY AS
A LOW BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEAR THE
SURFACE, WEAK DIURNAL PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL PREVAIL, WEAKLY
OFFSHORE AT NIGHT AND WEAKLY ONSHORE DURING THE DAY.
FORECAST-WISE, NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. MAIN ISSUE TO WATCH WILL BE THE WINDS. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS INDICATE MODERATE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS DEVELOPING
DURING THE EVENING THROUGH MORNING HOURS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SO, THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EACH NIGHT/MORNING
ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR.
LOOKING AT HREF DATA, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS IN THESE AREAS. THE WIND POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY BY FUTURE SHIFTS.
OTHER THAN WINDS, THE FORECAST WILL BE VERY BENIGN. WITH VARYING
AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING OVERHEAD, SKY CONDITION WILL WAVES
BETWEEN MOSTLY CLEAR AND PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME
MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG WILL BE LIKELY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND POSSIBLY THE LA
COUNTY COAST. FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST IS DENSE, SO WILL ISSUE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 900 AM FOR SANTA YNEZ VALLEY AND THE
WESTERN COASTAL ZONES OF SBA COUNTY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WILL
ANTICIPATE MINOR FLUCTUATIONS FROM DAY-TO- DAY, BASED MAINLY ON
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. OVERALL, MOST AREAS WILL HAVE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
17/307 AM.
FOR THE EXTENDED, 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DECENT SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS, INSIDE SLIDER DROPS
INTO THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY/FRIDAY, THEN MOVES EASTWARD AS A
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY/SUNDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE, MODERATE
NORTHERLY OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND WEAKLY OFFSHORE EASTERLY
GRADIENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FORECAST-WISE, MAIN ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LOOKING AT THE LATEST ENSEMBLES FROM
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF, NEITHER MODEL IS TOO OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT
THE OFFSHORE WINDS. NORTHERLY WIND-PRONE AREAS LOOK TO HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE OF LOW END ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS THAN NORTHEASTERLY
WIND-PRONE AREAS. THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ON
THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SOME WIND PRODUCTS BEING
NEEDED.
FURTHER OUT INTO "FANTASY LAND," NEITHER THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
OR THEIR ENSEMBLES INDICATE ANY GREAT CHANCES FOR RAIN. SO,
THROUGH THE END OF FEBRUARY, DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.
AVIATION
17/1153Z.
AT 0758Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER. THERE WAS A SURFACED
BASED INVERSION WITH A TOP AT 1700 FT AND A TEMPERATURE OF 17 C.
OVERALL, MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN DESERT AND VALLEY AIRFIELDS EXCEPT FOR KPRB - THERE
IS A 20% CHANCE OF VLIFR CONDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MON. WIND GUSTS
COULD BE OFF 5-10 KTS AT KPMD AND KWJF ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z MON.
LOWEST CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL AIRFIELDS, IN REGARDS TO MINIMUM
FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND ARRIVAL/DEPARTURE TIMES (+/- 2 HOURS).
THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS AT KVNY FROM 06Z TO 12Z
TUE. THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR HIGH-IFR CONDS AT KSMO AFTER 06Z
TUE. SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDS AT KSBA AFTER 09Z TUE.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF HIGH
IFR CONDS (BKN/OVC008) FROM 12Z TO 18Z MON. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE
CONDS REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY FEW-SCT COVERAGE THRU AFOREMENTIONED
TIMEFRAME. THERE IS 30% CHANCE THAT EAST WIND COMPONENT DOES NOT
REACH 6 KTS FROM 10Z TO 18Z TUE.
KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS FROM 06Z TO 12Z TUE.
MARINE
17/920 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH LULLS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING
(ESPECIALLY FOR PZZ670). SEAS WILL ALSO REACH SCA LEVELS AT TIMES
THIS WEEK, WITH BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE (80%) MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF LOW END GALE FORCE
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE WATERS
AROUND THE CHANNEL ISLANDS DOWN TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND. SIMILAR
CHANCES FOR AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVE POSSIBLY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, THERE IS A 80-90% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. FAIRLY LOW
CHANCES FOR SCA WINDS ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWED BY A 40% CHANCE FOR SCA
LEVEL NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BE NEAR SCA LEVELS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, AND POSSIBLY AGAIN THURSDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, THERE IS A 80-90%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL W TO NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING
IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SBA CHANNEL. LOWER CHANCES (30%)
TUESDAY, WITH INCREASING CHANCES (60-70%) DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE, SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT, WHERE THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF NE-E SCA
LEVEL WINDS NEARSHORE FROM VENTURA TO MALIBU.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST TUESDAY FOR ZONES
340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONE 354. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 645-650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...THOMPSON/SIRARD
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK/LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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